000 AXNT20 KNHC 152337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra-Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 03N34W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N east of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to Cedar Key, Florida supporting some showers in the Pensacola coastal waters. Surface high pressure centered SE of Bermuda continue to extend a ridge SW across great portions of Florida and into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds in the NE basin and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere, except for fresh winds off the northern Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. Otherwise, satellite imagery continue to reveal a large area of light to moderate density smoke covering mainly the western half of the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf. This smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibility, mainly in the W Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift north and inland tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin tonight through Sun. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the central Gulf Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia, between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America. Seas are reaching 8 to 11 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras this evening through tonight. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 74W-75W from the N coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas early Mon through late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near 30N61W. To the west of the high pressure center, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed between 74W and a surface trough that is analyzed from 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a weak cold front is analyzed from 31N34W. East of the front, a trough extends from 30N31W to 26N37W, where it devolves into a shearline to 21N70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough north of 27N to 25W and along the shearline from 19N to 21N between 56W and 70W. Satellite derived winds reveal fresh NE to E winds between the shearline and 23N, west of 52W. Seas to 8 ft are also within this area. NW swell to 8 to 10 ft is evident in this morning's altimeter pass north of 27N between 35W and 50W. Elsewhere west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N on Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast this morning and become stationary off northeast Florida tonight. An associated upper level trough across the NW waters this morning will move E- SE through the weekend and support very active weather across the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the trough near 26N73W Mon night, and shift N-NE and exit the region Tue evening. $$ Ramos