000 AXNT20 KNHC 151003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted form 00N to 06N east of 12W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 35W. and continues to 04N19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana, then continues as a warm front to the central Texas coast. A weak pressure pattern is in place across the region, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the far eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A trough over the Florida peninsula is supporting a few showers off Sarasota Florida. For the forecast, the front will lift north of the basin later today. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin late today through Sun. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the northern Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia this morning, between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over norther South America. SEas are reaching 8 to 11 ft in this area. Fresh to strong winds are also pulsing off Honduras where seas are up to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through today. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 75W from N coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near 29N61W. Broad surface ridging extends to the southwest of the high pressure to central Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N31W to 25N40W, where it transitions to a shear line to 19.5N65W. Recent scatterometer and satellite data showed fresh to strong E winds between the shear line and 23N, west of 55W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas to 9 ft in this area. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted north of the shear line from 20N to 22N between 55W and 60W. Fresh to strong E winds are also noted north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage. NW swell to 8 ft is evident north of 27N between 35W and 50W. Elsewhere west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted off the northeast coast of Florida ahead of an upper trough moving through the eastern United States. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through today. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will persist south of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast this morning and become stationary off northeast Florida tonight. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 75W Mon. Low pressure develops along the trough near 26N75W Mon night, shifts NNE and exits the region Tue. $$ Christensen