000 AXNT20 KNHC 150500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure located just W of Bermuda and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Minimal gale force winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through tonight. Seas will peak near 12 ft with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve later this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are expected near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, today through early Thu, from 13/1500 UTC to 14/1200 UTC, according to the forecast from Meteo-France. Seas will build to over 12 ft tonight in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 02N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 02N-07N between 13W-18W. Similar convection is near 00N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1025 mb located just S of Bermuda near 30N65W extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico continues to support fresh to strong SE winds mainly over the western half of the Gulf. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Fresh to strong E winds are also noted over the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft N of 22N and W of 89W, with the highest seas over the NW Gulf. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 23N between 86W and 89W, and also in the Straits of Florida. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere, except within about 60 nm W of Florida and in the E Bay of Campeche. An band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over the western Gulf affecting also SE Louisiana. The strongest storms can produce gusty winds to near gale-force, frequent lightning and rough seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf through late today. A weak cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight, and extend over the northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will briefly follow the front tonight into Thu morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for more details. Fresh to strong NE winds persist in the Windward passage and in the lee of eastern Cuba. Similar wind speeds are over the remainder of the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Sea heights are 8 to 12 ft near the coast of Colombia, 6 to 8 ft in the Windward passage, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is noted across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of low level moisture, are more concentrated in the lee of east-central Cuba, and over Hispaniola and regional waters. Similar cloudiness is observed over parts of Central America. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Minimal gale force winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through tonight. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N37W and continues southwestward to 21N55W, where it transitions into a shearline that extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A broken band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is associated with the shearline. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds on the northern side of the shearline, and moderate to fresh E winds on the south side of it. Seas of 9-14 ft in NW swell follow the cold front. High pressure of 1025 mb located just S of Bermuda follows the frontal boundary. Abundant cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted W of the front and N of the shearline to about 70W. E of the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is situated midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands, and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Seas are subsiding E of 35W, and now mainly seas of 8-10 ft prevail across that area. Across the tropical Atlantic, mainly moderate to fresh trades are seen based on scatterometer data with seas of 8-10 ft E of 40W, and seas of 6-8 ft between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front extends from 31N37W to 21N55W where a shearline begins and continues to near 21N70W. High pressure located just W of Bermuda dominates the remainder of the forecast area. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri night. $$ GR/AH