000 AXNT20 KNHC 142341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located near the Madeira Islands and a 1003 mb low pressure over northern Algeria supports gale force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC, according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France. The wave heights are peaking around 12 ft in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N E of 13W. Similar convection is found from 01S-04N between 24W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W SW to 27N91W to 26N95W where it transitions to a stationary front to the southern tip of Texas. Middle-level diffluence continue to support scattered showers ahead of the front E of 88W. Thunderstorms associated with a former squall line have gradually decayed. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the far NW Gulf with seas to 7 ft while winds of similar speed are off the Yucatan peninsula, except for locally strong winds and seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft are elsewhere. Otherwise, patchy areas of haze are possible over portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front will shift slightly southward this evening, then stall and weaken tonight, then will lift northward as a warm front on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sun. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and extend across the N half of the Gulf Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for the greater Antilles, most of the basin is relatively quiet in terms of precipitation. Strong high pressure centered SE of Bermuda continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the Caribbean, thus resulting in strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore NW Colombia and fresh trade winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds also prevails in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are 7-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere in the eastern half of the Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area. Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco. Please read the Special Features section for more details. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N61W. Broad surface ridging extends W from the high pressure to northern Florida. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail north of 25N and west of 70W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are farther east, closer to the high pressure center. Farther south, recent ASCAT data show fresh trade winds. Seas are 8-10 ft east of the southeast Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico, within the fresh trade wind area. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted over portions of the central and southeast Bahamas. A stationary front extends from 31N31W to 25N43W. A shear line continues from 25N43W to 21N53W to 20N67W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the shear line between 56W-63W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere near the shear line and stationary front. ASCAT shows fresh to strong NE to E trade winds within 120 nm N of the shear line between 57W-64W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the stationary front. A cold front enters the area near 31N45W and extends to 30N54W to 31N57W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the front. ASCAT shows fresh winds on both sides of the front. A large extratropical storm centered well north of the area near 47N37W is sending NW swell southward, into the area. As a result, seas of 8-11 ft are occurring north of 29N between 30W-55W. Seas of 8-9 ft also extend along the length of the stationary front and shear line. Farther south, fresh to locally strong trades and 8-10 ft seas are noted from 04N-12N between 40W-60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward along 73W Mon before low pres develops along the trough near 28N70W Mon night and shifts NNE. For the forecast east of 55W, low pressure is likely to increase winds and seas Sun through early next week, north of 25N and east of 40W. $$ Ramos