000 AXNT20 KNHC 130536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is present in the south-central Caribbean Sea due to high pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds in the offshore waters of northern Colombia. Pulsing gale-force winds in this region will continue into early Wed morning, and again Wed night into early Thu morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft in the early morning hours Wed and Thu as the gale-force winds diminish to fresh to strong for the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours. Conditions will improve later this weekend. Please read the High Seas forecast at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml or the Offshore Forecast at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present S of 08N and E of 17W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends to the western Gulf of Mexico. A storm system over the central United States and divergence aloft is generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf, primarily N of 24N and W of 90W. The strongest storms can produce gusty winds to near gale-force, frequent lightning and rough seas. Tranquil weather conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong SE winds are prevalent in the gulf, except for moderate or weaker winds in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are found across most of the Gulf, except for 2-5 ft in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf into Wed night. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are likely in the Florida Straits through tonight. A weak cold front will move off the Texas coast Wed night, and extend over the northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea near the northern coast of Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient mentioned in the Special Features section also results in fresh to strong trades over most of the basin. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, strong winds are found in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba as a scatterometer satellite pass recently captured. Seas are 4-8 ft outside of the south-central Caribbean, except for 1-4 ft in the waters between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Minimal gale force winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage into late night. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N40W and continues southwestward to 21N55W, where it transitions into a shear line that continues westward to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. No deep convection is associated with these features. A high pressure system of 1026 mb is located near Bermuda and dominates most of the western Atlantic. Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong NE-E winds within 120 nm north of the cold front and shear line, with the strongest winds occurring S of 23N, including at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Similar winds are also found in the Bahamas and offshore Cuba, especially S of 26N. Seas of 8-14 ft are found north of the frontal boundary and shear line and E of 64W and seas greater than 12 ft are occurring N of 28N and between 45W and 53W. Elsewhere behind the front, moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas prevail. The rest of the basin is under the control of a 1022 mb high pressure system just south of the Azores. Fresh trades are noted S of 13N and W of 33W with northerly swell producing seas of 6-8 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are present N of 17N and E of 22W, as depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The strongest winds are occurring near the coast of southern Western Sahara. Seas in the area described are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 5-8 ft seas are predominant. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N40W to 21N55W where a shearline begins and continues to near 21N70W. The cold front portion will continue moving SE into Wed, before stalling along 20N Wed night, and dissipating by Thu night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell behind the front will continue to propagate across the NE forecast waters into Wed. Another cold front will clip the NE waters Thu into Thu night. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist across the region S of 23N through the weekend. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri night. $$ Delgado