000
AXNT20 KNHC 122120
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean Sea between high pressure north of the
basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing
gale-force winds offshore of northern Colombia tonight into early
Wed morning, and again Wed night into early Thu morning. Seas will
peak around 13 ft in the early morning hours Wed and Thu as the
gale-force winds diminish to fresh to strong for the remainder of
the morning and afternoon hours.
Please read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of western
Africa from near the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02S34W to 01S44W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and
offshore of the coast of Africa from 03N to 08N between 07W and
13W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N
between 13W and 25W, from 01N to 03N between 28W and 31W, from 
01S to 04S between 34W and 37W, and from the equator to 02N 
between 41W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the basin from 1027 mb
high pressure east of the area in the Atlantic Ocean west of
Bermuda near 31N74W. A surface trough is analyzed over southeast 
and southern Mexico from near Veracruz to across the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec to 17N91W. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow 
dominates the basin. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the eastern Gulf and 5 
to 8 ft in the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are noted over the NW Gulf within about 60 nm of shore and 
extending inland in the very moist southerly flow.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half 
of the Gulf into Wed night. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are 
likely in the Florida Straits through tonight. A weak cold front 
will move off the Texas coast Wed night, and extend over the 
northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front 
will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder 
remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the Caribbean Sea near the northern coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the basin combined with low pressure over
northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades in
the central Caribbean around the area of pulsing gale-force winds.
Seas are 6 to 10 ft in this area, highest northwest of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere. Shallow moisture that is embedded in the trade wind 
flow, is producing isolated to scattered passing rainshowers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean 
near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Minimal gale force 
winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed 
night. Pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected 
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage into late night. Fresh to 
locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night into Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb is west of Bermuda near 31N74W with a
ridge extending southwest to west to the coast of the southeastern
U.S. A cold front extends from north of 31N42W to 23N52W then
continues as dissipating to 21N66W. Isolated to widely scattered 
showers are noted within 120 nm either side of the front. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are noted north of 29N between 60W and 
75W under the high. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted north 
of 30N between the front and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
are noted south of 25N and west of the front, and elsewhere north 
of 27N west of the front to 55W, with moderate anticyclonic winds 
elsewhere. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted north of 27N 
within about 180 to 240 nm east of the front. Seas are 8 to 14 ft 
in NW swell north of 23N and west of the front to 65W. Seas are 4 
to 7 ft elsewhere west of the front, except 2 to 4 ft north of 27N
and west of 75W.

To the east, 1021 mb high pressure is centered just north of the 
area near 32N26W with a ridge axis reaching southwest through 
26N35W to 21N55W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are within
300 nm or so of either side of the ridge, along with seas of 5 to
7 ft. A surface trough is south of the ridge from 26N36W to 
18N37W. Scattered showers are possible on either side of the 
trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas 
prevail across the remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters,
except fresh to strong winds from 19N to 24N west of the coast of
Africa to 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front portion will 
continue moving SE into Wed, before stalling along 20N Wed night, 
and dissipating by Thu night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell 
behind the front will continue to propagate across the NE forecast
waters into Wed. Another cold front will clip the NE waters Thu 
into Thu night. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas 
of 8 to 9 ft will persist across the region S of 23N through the 
weekend. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. 
coast Fri and become stationary Fri night.

For the forecast east of 55W, the cold front will gradually weaken
through the remainder of the week. Little change in expected in
marine conditions with several rounds of NW swell rotating
through the northern waters associated with a parent low pressure 
system of the front.

$$
Lewitsky