000
AXNT20 KNHC 111016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, ten continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N13W to near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 03N between 26W and 34W, and near
02N40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb located just east of northern Florida 
extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and a low pressure of 1002 mb over NE Mexico 
supports fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western half of 
the Gulf. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of 
these winds. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range within these winds. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail over the NE
Gulf with moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the 
western Gulf near the Tampico area. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf waters and a low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to
support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half of 
the Gulf through Wed. These winds will expand eastward on Tue as 
the aforementioned high pressure continues to shift eastward. A 
weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed night, then 
become stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu. The western part 
of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while 
its remainder remains stationary. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward passage and in the lee
of eastern Cuba. Similar wind speeds are over the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh 
NE to E winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to 
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near the coast of 
Colombia, 6 to 7 ft in the Windward passage, and in the lee of 
Cuba with seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. 

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Windward passage 
to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A few showers are near the
frontal boundary. Patches of low level moisture, with possible 
showers are noted more concentrated over Hispaniola, particularly 
across Haiti and western Dominican Republic, and over the Mona 
passage. Similar cloudiness is noted over much of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing
fresh to strong northeast winds are expected at night and into 
the mornings in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage through Tue. 
Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the Windward passage. Low
level clouds and possible showers are associated with the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N
of 30N and roughly between 54W and 68W. An altimeter pass indicates
seas of 9 to 13 ft N of 26N and W of the front. High pressure of 
1023 mb located just E of northern Florida follows the front. E of
the front, a 1021 high pressure is situated near 31N39W and dominates
much of the E and central Atlantic. A stationary front crosses the
Canary Islands and continues westward to 24N25W to 25N40W. Seas 
of 8 to 12 ft in N swell can be found in the wake of the front.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will 
reach from 27N55W to the coast of Haiti this evening, and extend 
from 22N55W across the waters N of Puerto Rico near 21N68W by Tue 
evening. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected behind the front 
mainly N of 28N through early Tue while fresh to strong NE winds 
will persist in the wake of the front across the waters S of 24N-
25N through at least Wed. Seas of 12-15 ft will continue to 
propagate across the NE forecast waters in the wake of the front 
through Tue night. High pressure will follow the front, and will 
remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through
Fri. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast 
Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
GR