000
AXNT20 KNHC 101044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: 
A cold front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N69W to the
northern Bahamas. Gale force W to NW winds are expected to end by
early this morning N of 30N. By 1200 UTC, the gale force winds
will shift north of 31N. Seas will peak near 15 ft this morning
after sunrise. Conditions should gradually improve by mid Sun
morning, with the strong winds diminishing by tonight. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the Senegal/The Gambia
border near 13N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01S20W to
00N34W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted off the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone in addition to
the eastern portions of the ITCZ from 04S to 07N and E of 25W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04S to
04N W of 26W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dome of 1021 mb high over the central Gulf is dominating the
entire basin. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are
seen over the central and N central Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE
return flow are evident over W Gulf. Buoy 42020 off the coast of
Corpus Christi, TX is reporting seas are up to 9 ft. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of 
the basin, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, fresh winds will expand across the eastern Gulf
on Mon through Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward out of 
the basin. The fresh to strong winds across the western and 
central Gulf will continue through Wed. A weak cold front could 
potentially move off the Texas coast on Thu, move into the 
northern Gulf and stall. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and 
thunderstorms near the Costa Rica-Panama border and adjacent 
waters. A stationary front extends from E Cuba across the coast of
north-central Honduras. Patchy showers are occurring up to 60 nm 
NW, and up to 110 nm SE of the front, including Jamaica. Fresh NE 
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found behind the front over the NW 
basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with seas at 8 to 10 ft 
are noted over the S central basin, just N of Colombia. Moderate 
to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds 
will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through at least Thu 
night. The stationary front will dissipate by this evening. Winds
will continue to prevail at moderate to fresh speeds through Thu 
for most of the NW and eastern Caribbean. High pressure building 
in behind the front will increase northeast to east winds across 
portions of the northwest and central Caribbean from tonight 
through at least Wed night. Fresh to strong east to southeast 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night from Tue through
Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on 
a Gale Warning.

The primary front in the west-central Atlantic is stalled from
31N67W to 21N75W in eastern Cuba. A secondary reinforcing cold 
front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N69W to the northern 
Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near both fronts from the N 
coast of Cuba, northward across the central and NW Bahamas to 
beyond 31N. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale W 
to NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are present N of 27N between 64W 
and 79W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft 
are seen N of 24N between 80W and the Georgia- Florida coast. 
Moderate to fresh NW to NE winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail 
through most of the Bahamas. 

Farther east, a third cold front curves west-southwestward from W
of Madeira across 31N23W to 27N30W to 27N42W, then continues 
westward as a surface trough to 25N52W. Cloudiness and scattered 
showers are occurring near these features N of 25N between 22W 
and 50W. Despite the presence of gentle to moderate northerly 
winds, persistent northerly swell is sustaining 8 to 10 ft seas N
of 25N between the Canary Islands and 49W. Farther south, 
moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 5 to 8 ft seas are 
present S of 21N between 35W and 61W/Lesser Antilles, and also 
from 10N to 25N between the African coast and 35W. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the primary front will reach from near
31N62W to 25N67W to the Windward Passage this afternoon, and from
31N55W to north of Haiti by Mon morning. The gale-force winds are
expected to end this morning as the two fronts merge together. 
Winds will continue to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds 
tonight along the front. High pressure will move eastward along 
30N/31N through midweek, which will improve conditions over most 
of the forecast waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing
northeast to east winds near the Windward Passage tonight through
Thu night. 

$$ 
AReinhart