000 AXNT20 KNHC 100552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N70W and the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Gale force W to NW winds are expected overnight tonight behind the front near 30N77W. These gales will progress eastward along the front through early Sun morning. By mid Sun morning, these gales should shift north of 31N. Seas under gales will reach 12 to 14 ft overnight, then peak near 15 ft Sun morning after sunrise. Conditions should gradually improve by mid Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal-Gambia border through 10N20W to 05N22W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen S of the trough, SW of Liberia from 03S to 06N between 12W and 20W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up over Liberia, Ivory Coast and S Guinea. An ITCZ extends from 02S21W through EQ35W to N of Belem, Brazil at EQ48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05S to 02N between 21W and the coast of Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dome of 1021 mb high over the central Gulf is dominating the entire basin. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen over the central and N central Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE return flow and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over W Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the E Gulf and Yucatan Channel will become easterly and continue to diminish thru Sun morning. Fresh to strong E to SE return flow in the W Gulf will continue through Wed afternoon. A weak cold front may move into the N Gulf Thu and stall. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Costa Rica-Panama border and adjacent waters. A stationary front extends from E Cuba across the coast of Honduras near La Ceiba to W Honduras. Patchy showers are occurring up to 60 nm NW, and up to 110 nm SE of the front, including Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found behind the front over the NW basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted over the S central basin, just N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Thu night. The stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Sun evening, which should allow winds over the NW basin to diminish to moderate to fresh early Sun morning. Afterward, high pressure building in across the Yucatan Channel will increase NE to E winds across the NW and central Caribbean from Sun night through at least Wed night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night from Tue through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning. A primary cold front extends from near Bermuda across 31N67W and the SE Bahamas to E Cuba. A secondary reinforcing cold front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N70W and the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers are found near both fronts from the N coast of Cuba, northward across the central and NW Bahamas to beyond 31N. Outside the Gale Warning area, Strong to near-gale W to NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are present N of 27N between 68W and 80W. Fresh to strong SW winds with seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident N of 28N between 64W and 68W. Fresh with locally strong NW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen N of 24N between 80W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NW to NE winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist for the NW Bahamas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found across the central and SE Bahamas. Farther east, a third cold front curves west-southwestward from W of Madeira across 31N24W to 27N43W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 26N52W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are occurring near these features N of 25N between 20W and 51W. Despite the presence of gentle to moderate northerly winds, persistent northerly swell is sustaining 7 to 9 ft seas N of 25N between the Canary Islands and 49W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are present from 04N to 21N between 35W and 61W/Lesser Antilles, and also from 10N to 25N between the African coast and 35W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the primary cold front will reach from near 31N64W across 25N69W to the Windward Passage Sun morning, and from 31N54W to north of Haiti by Mon morning. Strong to gale- force winds and rough seas associated with the secondary cold front will continue through Sun morning as the front merges with the primary front. The strong winds will diminish by Sun night as the merged front pushes farther east. High pressure will move eastward near 30N/31N early next week, which will improve conditions over most of the forecast waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing NE to E winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through Thu night. $$ Chan