000
AXNT20 KNHC 092310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N73W to
28N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. Gale force W to NW winds will
develop this evening behind the front, north of 29N and east of 
80W. These gales will progress eastward through the overnight
hours tonight, covering areas as far east as 70W, to the north of
29N. By Sun morning after sunrise, the gales will move north of
31N. Seas will build to 10 to 15 ft overnight within the gale
force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 
01S36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm N and within 180 nm S 
of the ITCZ. Similar convection is noted south of the monsoon 
trough, from 02S to 05N between 10W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that was over the eastern Gulf of Mexico earlier
today has dissipated. A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the
central Gulf near 26N91W, with a ridge oriented north-south over
the west-central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
occurring over the eastern Gulf, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh 
to locally strong N winds are likely occurring along the NW coast 
of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are likely 4-5 ft. Moderate 
to fresh SE to S winds have developed along the immediate coast of
Texas and NE Mexico, where seas are 3-4 ft. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in
the area of the high pressure ridge.

For the forecast, the fresh winds over the eastern Gulf will shift
east of the Gulf tonight. Fresh to strong east to southeast 
return flow is expected to develop in the western Gulf tonight 
and continue through Wed afternoon. A weak cold front may move 
into the northern Gulf Thu and stall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to
northern Honduras near 16N87W. Isolated showers are possible near
the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are within 120 nm N of
the front, over the NW Caribbean. The winds are allowing for 6 to
8 ft seas over portions of the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are likely occurring within 120 
nm offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate
trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Colombia and
4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds 
will pulse tonight in the south-central Caribbean near the coast 
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds will persist
through Thu night. The stationary front will gradually weaken and
dissipate by early Sun evening. Winds will diminish to moderate 
to fresh speeds tonight. High pressure building in behind the 
front will then increase northeast to east winds across the lee 
of Cuba and Windward Passage areas from Sun night through at least
Tue night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras at night from Tue through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to the central Bahamas near
23N75W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. A secondary reinforcing cold
front extends from 31N73W to 28N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida,
mentioned above in the special features section. Scattered showers
are along and within 90 nm east of the leading cold front, mainly
north of 27N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 180 nm
ahead of the leading front, mainly north of 28N. Strong to near
gale force W winds are occurring to the west of the second cold 
front, mainly north of 28N. A recent altimeter pass indicates that
seas have already built up to at least 12 ft in the area of strong
to near gale force W winds.

Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is near 33N49W. A cold front
extends from 31N27W to 28N32W to 28N44W. Fresh winds prevail on 
both sides of the cold front, mainly north of 29N between 21W-32W.
Seas are 8-10 ft north of 29N between 23W-45W. A surface trough 
is analyzed from 28N44W to 26N48W to 26N52W. Winds are moderate or
weaker near the surface trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail 
across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 6-9 ft in the tropical trade
wind area. Gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across much of 
area from 21N-27N between 35W-57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the leading cold front will reach 
from near 31N64W to 25N70W to the Windward Passage Sun morning. 
Strong winds are expected to continue ahead and behind this front 
through Sun. The second cold front will be followed by strong to 
gale-force winds and building seas through Sun as it merges with 
the first front on Sun morning. High pressure will build over the 
area early next week, which will improve conditions over most of 
the forecast waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing 
northeast to east winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night 
through Thu night as the high center slides eastward along 
30N/31N. 

$$
Hagen