039 
AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N30W 
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 
26W and 46W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC: a cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 
the north-central Gulf near 28N89W. No precipitation is 
currently noted. Recent buoy observations report moderate to 
fresh NNW winds behind the front with seas noted to be up to 10 
ft offshore the Tampa Bay area. Closer to the northern Gulf 
coast behind the boundary, seas are 3 to 5 ft. Ahead of the 
boundary over the eastern Gulf, a recent scatterometer pass 
found fresh to strong NW winds, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. 
Elsewhere, a 1023 high pressure center is near 25N93W, allowing 
for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow west of 90W surrounding 
the center. Recent altimeter data noted 4 to 6 ft seas in the SW 
Gulf and 1 to 3 ft seas in the NW Gulf. 

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly move southward 
across the eastern Gulf today with fresh to strong winds 
following it. These winds will diminish by tonight as the front 
exits the Gulf. Fresh to strong east to southeast return flow is 
expected in the western Gulf tonight and will continue through 
Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving cold front currently extends from east- central 
Cuba to northern Honduras with fresh to strong N winds behind 
it. Mainly strong winds are within 60 nm offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula. The winds are allowing for 6 to 8 ft seas within the 
Yucatan Channel and NW portion of the basin, west of 83W. 
Scattered showers may still be within 60 nm of this boundary. 
Elsewhere, recent scatterometer data notes fresh to strong winds 
within 150 nm offshore Colombia, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern and 
north-central portions of the basin, where seas are mainly 
between 5 and 6 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds 
will pulse tonight in the south-central Caribbean near the coast 
of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will remain steady Sun 
through Wed night. The cold front will move across the rest of 
the northwestern Caribbean today and tonight, then become 
stationary from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras 
by Sun and dissipate by early Sun evening. Winds will diminish 
to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. High pressure building 
in behind the front will increase northeast to east winds across 
the northwestern and central Caribbean from Sun night through at 
least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from NW of Bermuda southwestward across 
31N71W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms continue along and up to 80 nm SE of the front 
N of 25N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of the 
front, with fresh to strong westerly winds behind the front, 
north of about 28N. A second cold front extends from near 31N77W 
to inland central Florida. Recent buoy observations found fresh 
to strong westerly winds and seas up to 10 ft behind this front. 

The Atlantic ridge stretches southwestward from a 1022 mb high 
centered near 25N37W to the eastern Greater Antilles. Light to 
gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas related to this feature are 
present N of 20N between 20W and 65W. South of 20N and west of 
30W to the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE trades and seas 
of 6 to 8 ft continue. Scatterometer data from this morning 
noted moderate northerly winds surrounding the Canary Islands.

For the forecast, the front will reach from near 31N68W to the 
southeastern Bahamas and to the eastern tip of Cuba this 
evening, and from near 31N64W to 25N70W and to the Windward 
Passage Sun morning. Strong winds are expected to continue ahead 
and behind this front through Sun. The secondary cold front will 
be followed by strong to gale-force winds and building seas 
today through Sun as it merges with the first front by Sun. High 
pressure will build over the area early next week which will 
improve conditions over most of the forecast waters. This high 
pressure will lead to increasing northeast to east winds near 
the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed night. 

$$
Mora