000 AXNT20 KNHC 090547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau to near 09N22W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found S of the trough, near and S of the Liberia- Ivory Coast coastline to 01N between 05W and 15W. An ITCZ extends from 02N16W through EQ30W to NE of Belem, Brazil at EQ46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01S to 02N between 16W and the Brazilian coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A developing cold front curves westward from the Florida Panhandle near Panama City to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present near this feature across the N central and NE Gulf. A 1023 mb high over the NW Gulf is sustaining fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas over the SW, central and SE Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen near the high. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Fresh with locally strong N to NE winds S of 26N will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong NW winds associated with the cold front are expected to remain at the NE Gulf but shift from the N central Gulf to the E central Gulf early this evening. This front will quickly move southward across the E Gulf tonight and Sat, allowing these winds to diminish by Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE return flow is expected in the W Gulf Sat night and through Wed afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front meanders southwestward from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras, then continues as a stationary front across central Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 80 nm SE of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions at the SW basin, near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are observed behind the cold front over the NW corner of the basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are found ahead of the cold front between the Honduras-Costa Rico border and the Island of Youth. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with seas at 5 to 7 ft are present over the S central and SE basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will pulse late at night in the S central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Then, fresh to strong winds will remain steady Sun through Wed night. The cold front will move across the rest of the NW Caribbean through Sat and dissipate by Sun. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Sat night. High pressure building in behind the front will increase NE to E winds across the NW and central Caribbean from Sun night through at least Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from NW of Bermuda across 31N72W and the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 80 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong westerly winds along with seas at 6 to 8 ft are found behind and ahead of the front, N of 28N between 69W and the Georgia-N Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic. The Atlantic ridge stretches southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores High across 31N22W to E Cuba. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas related to this feature are present N of 20N between 20W and 69W. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft are found near the Canary Islands N of 24N between the NW African coast and 20W. Farther SW, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist from 12N to 20N between the central African coast and 30W; and also from 05N to 18N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N71W across the central Bahamas to E Cuba Sat morning, and from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Sun morning. Strong W to NW winds are expected behind this front through Sun. The front will weaken over the SE part of the area late Mon through Tue. A second cold front will push off the Florida coast early Sat. This front will bring widespread strong to near gale-force winds and building seas on Sat and Sun. Then, high pressure will build over the area early next week; improving conditions for most of the forecast waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing NE to E winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed night. $$ Chan