000 AXNT20 KNHC 052236 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N16W to 01N21W, and then along the equator to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 15W and 17W, and from the equator to 04N between 27W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure field over the Gulf of Mexico is rather diffuse, supporting fair weather over most of the basin. At this time, convection associated with a frontal system north of the area remains just inland over the SE United States, but a few showers or thunderstorms are possible this evening in the NE Gulf. The latest surface data indicates moderate S to SW flow in the eastern Gulf, increasing to fresh and strong speeds in the central Gulf, from the Yucatan Channel to offshore of SE Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, along the periphery of high pressure centered off the SE US coast. Gentle S flow prevails in the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds will prevail mainly across the central Gulf until the next cold front exits Texas on Wed. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. This system will move SE and exit the basin by Fri morning. High pressure will move east across the northern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The weak pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and high pressure north of the area is producing mainly moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin, highest in the south-central Caribbean and the NW Caribbean northeast of the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is now confined to along the coast and inland of Panama and northern Colombia. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds may produce isolated early this evening. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of the Caribbean, peaking at 7 ft off the coast of Colombia and northeast of the Gulf of Honduras. In the lee of Cuba and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands, seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Wed night. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W to 27N66W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is along and east of the front, north of 27N. Northwest of the front, 1022 mb high pressure is centered just northwest of Bermuda near 33N66W. In the western Atlantic north of the front, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, except moderate to fresh west of 76W where the pressure gradient is tight. South of the front, across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow continues along the southern extent of the subtropical high pressure north of the area, except locally strong near the coast of Africa from 19N to 26N and from 10N to 15N. Winds are light along a ridge axis that extends from 31N37W to 25N60W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in northerly swell north of 27N and west of the front, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in mainly NE to E swell elsewhere west of 35W, except 4 to 6 ft under the mentioned ridge axis where the lighter winds are. Seas are 7 to 9 ft east of 35W in mixed NE and NW swell, highest north of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong S winds will develop offshore N Florida this evening, in advance of the next cold front, that will move offshore the SE U.S. on Thu. This front will reach from 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by Fri morning. Strong NW winds are likely offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend. $$ Lewitsky