000 AXNT20 KNHC 051704 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N15W to 01N21W, and then along the equator to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 28W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure field over the Gulf of Mexico is rather diffuse, supporting fair weather over most of the basin. At this time, convection associated with a frontal system north of the area remains inland over the SE United States, but a few showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the NE Gulf. The latest surface data indicates moderate S to SW flow in the eastern Gulf, increasing to fresh and strong speeds in the central Gulf, along the periphery of high pressure centered off the SE US coast. Gentle S flow prevails in the western Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds will prevail mainly across the central Gulf until the next cold front exits Texas on Wed. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. This system will move SE and exit the basin Fri. High pressure will move E across the northern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The weak pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and high pressure north of the area is producing mainly moderate trades across the basin, except near the coast of Colombia and in the NW Caribbean where the most recent scatterometer data depicts fresh trades. A small area of strong winds is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 10N between 80W and 83W. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds may produce isolated showers today. Seas are 4-6 ft across most of the Caribbean, peaking at 7 ft off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. In the lee of Cuba and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands, seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Wed night. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N58W to 26N68W. Scattered moderate convection is along the stationary front, north of 27N. NW of the front, 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 33N70W. In the W Atlantic N of the front, gentle NE to E winds prevail. South of the front, across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow continues along the southern extent of the subtropical high pressure north of the area. Winds are light along a ridge axis that extends from 31N40W to 23N60W. Seas are 3-5 ft W of 65W, and 4-7 ft between 35W and 65W. In the E Atlantic, S of 20N E of 35W, seas are 4-7 ft. N of 20N E of 35W, seas are 8-10 ft in NE swell. For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds will develop offshore N Florida this evening, in advance of the next cold front, that will move offshore the SE U.S. Thu. Strong NW winds are likely offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend. $$ Mahoney