000 AXNT20 KNHC 050958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 00N21W, then continues along the equator to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between 28W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak warm front is located in the far NE Gulf, extending from N of Tampa Bay to the Mississippi coast. Convection previously associated with this front has dissipated early this morning. Patchy fog is occurring in the nearshore waters off the middle and upper Texas coast. There is also 1001 mb low pressure centered near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong S winds encompass the central Gulf, highest within 300 nm NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. In the eastern Gulf, mainly moderate SE winds prevail, with the NW Gulf having gentle S winds. Seas in the area of strong winds are 5 to 7 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft seas in the east. For the forecast, the warm front will drift N today and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong S winds in the SW and central Gulf will prevail until a cold front exits Texas Wed. Strong N winds and building seas will follow the front. This cold front will move SE and exit the basin Fri. High pressure will move E across the northern Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between higher pressure to the north and low pressure in northern Colombia is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the basin, except some strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and gentle SE winds in the Lee of Cuba. Relatively dry air is suppressing most convection, but scattered thunderstorms are occurring in the far SW Carribbean, S of 11N, including Costa Rica and Panama as well as adjacent waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the Lee of Cuba and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean, highest near the coast of Colombia, into tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it becomes stationary and continues to near Boca Raton, Florida. Scattered moderate convection along the cold front continues, but showers and thunderstorms along the stationary front have dissipated early this morning. To the north of the front, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 32N71W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail on both sides of the front, and for all Atlantic waters N of 22N and W of 55W. Seas average 4 to 6 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Farther E, 1026 mb high pressure centered over the Azores is dominating weather N of 25N and E of 55W. Mainly gentle, anticyclonic winds are occurring in this region. A low pressure trough along 22N, from Western Sahara to 30W, is causing fresh to strong NE winds between the trough axis and 25N. For Tropical Atlantic waters S of 22N, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Seas across the Central and Tropical Atlantic are 5 to 7 ft, with 8 to 10 ft seas prevailing N of 20N and E of 40W, in NE swell. For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate today, while the cold front will move E and gradually dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds will develop offshore N Florida this evening, in advance of the next cold front, that will move offshore the SE U.S. Thu. Strong NW winds are likely offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend. $$ KONARIK