000
AXNT20 KNHC 041005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 
00N22W, then continues along the equator to 43W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 05N 
between 13W and 17W. Also, scattered moderate convection is noted 
W of 20W and between these features and 05N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades to 23N87W. S of
the front, scattered moderate convection prevails, with overall
gentle SE wind. N of the front, moderate E winds prevail. To the W
of the front, W of 87W, mainly moderate SE winds are occurring,
except locally fresh winds within 120 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NW Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere, except
2 to 4 fit within 180 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

The cold front will drift southeast today and dissipate by this 
evening. In the wake of this boundary dissipating, fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop over much of the basin. The next 
cold front is forecast to move off Texas by Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening trough is leading to scattered moderate convection
along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions prevail. Mainly moderate to fresh E trades prevail, 
although winds are gentle in the Lee of Cuba and in the far SW 
Caribbean, S of 11N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the 
NW Carribbean and 1 to 2 ft in the Lee of Cuba.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia 
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of 
Honduras late today and continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere. A cold front is likely to approach the 
Yucatan Channel Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Miami, Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of this front and W
of 77W, mainly over the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits. Moderate
to fresh N winds are occurring N of the front. Ahead of the front,
N of 27N and W of 50W, fresh SW winds are occurring. S of 27N,
mainly moderate S winds prevail, with gentle winds in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Seas W of 50W are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to
4 ft within 180 nm of the Florida coast, and 1 to 3 ft in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. 

Farther E, a surface high pressure of 1022 mb is centered near
28N42W. A trough extends along 23N. N of the trough, the high
pressure is inducing light anticyclonic winds, with areas to the
south of the trough experiencing moderate to fresh trades. Seas
for areas E of 50W are 4 to 7 ft, except for areas E of 40W and N
of 20N, where seas are 8 to 11 ft in a zone of decaying N swell. 
Convection previously associated with the trough has dissipated 
early this morning. 

In the far E Atlantic, E of 30N and N of 27N, including the Canary
Islands and the Azores, fresh to locally strong N winds are
occurring, with seas of up to 14 ft.

For the forecast over areas W of 65W, the cold front in the SW 
Atlantic will move east and reach out of the area by Tue night. 
Strong southerly winds will develop Tue night offshore northern 
Florida, in advance of the next cold front, that will move 
offshore the SE U.S. by Thu night.

$$
KONARIK