395 AXNT20 KNHC 011647 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and reaches into the Atlantic near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the Equator at 30W, then continues to 01S39W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted east of 30W between the Equator and 07N, while scattered moderate convection is present west of 30W between 04S to 02N. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front extends from the Suncoast Keys, FL to 26N88W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to near Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough is analyzed near Bradenton, FL to 25W86W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 80 nm ahead of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh mainly NE winds are occurring behind the front across the northern Gulf. To the south of the front, gentle to locally moderate SE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the entire Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be restricting visibility in portions of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico. Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service, by calling 305-229-4425. For the forecast, the above-mentioned front will stall today from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico, then meander over the area this weekend. Strong thunderstorms may continue along the front through Sat. The front will dissipate sometime early next week with southerly return flow dominating the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid and upper level ridging is suppressing convection over the Caribbean this morning, with surface high pressure centered north of the region inducing fresh trades winds across most of the basin. Satellite derived winds reveal strong mainly E winds south of Hispaniola, off the north coast of Colombia, and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the basin, except 8 to 10 ft offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. The fresh to strong winds south of Dominican Republic and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sat. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N80W to the NE Florida coast. Ahead of the front, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 100N miles of a surface trough that extends from 30N78W to near Titusville, FL. Further east, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 20N56W, where it devolves into a shear line and continues to 21N71W. The only notable convection with this surface feature is located north of 30N between the front and 29W. A surface trough along 51W, from 08N southward is producing scattered moderate convection between 49W and 53W. Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds are observed behind the central Atlantic front, with lighter winds closer to a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 32N56W. To the north of the shear line and southwest of the high pressure, including the Bahamas and waters near the Greater Antilles, moderate to fresh mainly SE to E winds prevail. Fresh to strong S winds are noted in a recent Scatterometer pass north of 27N between 65W and the surface trough in the western Atlantic. South of the front and shear line, for areas W of 40W, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with areas further E having mainly gentle NE flow, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds offshore Morocco. North of the cold front in the central Atlantic, NW swell is leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, seas average 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W will prevail through Sat. Strong southerly winds are noted ahead of this front that is pushing off the NE Florida coast from 31N80W to 30N81W and will continue moving across the northern waters as the front progresses eastward through tonight. The front is forecast to become stationary across the central waters Sat night through Sun. Scattered strong thunderstorms will precede the front today and Sat, with showers and thunderstorms continuing along the front through Sun. Another cold front will push southward across the basin Sun into early next week. $$ Nepaul