000 AXNT20 KNHC 011021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: South winds of 25 to 35 kt can be expected early this morning N of 29N between 76W and 80W. These winds are occurring ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of Florida later this morning, ending gales and turnings winds westerly for this afternoon. Waves heights in the area of gales are 9 to 12 ft. These seas will diminish this afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the Equator at 30W, then continues W of 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both of these features, between the equator and 08N. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to just N of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring behind the front across the northern Gulf. To the S of the front, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the entire Gulf, but decaying. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and S of the cold front off the coast of Florida, generally from 26N to 29N, E of 87W. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be restricting visibility in portions of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico. Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service, by calling 305-229-4425. The cold front will stall today from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico, then meander over the area this weekend, before dissipating for the start of next week. Southerly return flow will dominate early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid and upper level high pressure is preventing convection over the Caribbean this morning, with surface high pressure centered north of the region inducing fresh trades winds across the area. Areas of strong mainly E winds are noted S of Hispaniola, off the N coast of Colombia, and in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the basin, except 8 to 10 ft offshore Colombia and in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Surface high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through the weekend, but similar winds south of Dominican Republic and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sat. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect early this morning offshore northeast Florida. These southerly gales are occurring ahead of a cold front that is currently inland over Florida. However, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in advance of this front is impacting waters N of 28N and W of 77W. A cold front extends from 31N35W to 20N56W, where it devolves into a shear line and continues to 20N74W. Convection previously associated with this front has diminished. Winds north of this boundary are mainly moderate to fresh, with lighter winds closer to a weak high pressure centered just E of Bermuda. To the N of the shear line and SW of the high pressure, including the Bahamas, offshore Florida, and waters near the Greater Antilles, moderate to fresh mainly SE winds prevail. S of the front and shear line, for areas W of 40W, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with areas further E having mainly gentle NE flow, with the except of moderate to fresh winds offshore Morocco. A surface trough along 49W, from 08N southward is producing scattered moderate convection between 46W and 52W. N of the cold front in the central Atlantic, NW well is leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere through the basin, seas average 5 to 7 ft, with some 8 ft seas behind observed E of and approaching the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W will prevail today. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force will continue off northeastern Florida early this morning ahead of a cold front that will move across the waters offshore northeastern Florida today, then across the northern waters into Sat. The front is forecast to become stationary across the central waters Sat night. Scattered strong thunderstorms are likely to precede the front today. Another cold front may move across the basin early next week. $$ KONARIK