000 AXNT20 KNHC 311807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force S to SW winds with frequent gusts to gale force will continue off NE Florida, N of 27N W of 77W through tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast that will enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights with these winds are in the 9 to 11 ft range. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are occurring N of 22N and E of the Florida W coast. By mid Fri morning, winds are expected to diminish to strong speeds with seas marginally subsiding to between 8 and 11 ft. For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. An ITCZ curves from EQ22W across 02S34W to NE of Belem, Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 05S to 02N between 25W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from just E of New Orleans to 28N94W and to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring up to 40 nm E and S of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the NE Gulf just S of the Florida Big Bend area. A surface trough runs northeastward from a 1005 mb low at the SW Bay of Campeche to the central Gulf. Patchy showers are present near the features. Smoke produced by spotty agricultural fires near Vera Cruz, Mexico might reduce visibilities over the adjacent Gulf waters. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities due to smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Outside the Gale Warning area, Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident over the SE Gulf, including the Florida Strait and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NW to NE winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft exist across the NW and N central Gulf. Light to gentle cyclonic winds are found over the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by later this evening, becoming stationary by early Fri. The front will lift N as a warm front through Fri night, then push offshore again for the remainder of the weekend before washing out along 26N Sun night. Southerly return flow will dominate for the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Bahamas across central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. This feature is sustaining E to SE trade winds over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered trade-wind showers are near the Less Antilles. Fresh to strong trades are noted across the Gulf of Honduras, and N of Colombia; producing 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades along with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic, and in the Gulf of Honduras, except diminishing south of Hispaniola Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from the central Atlantic across 31N44W to 23N54W, then continues westward as a shear line to near the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 80 nm SE of the front, and up to 80 nm N of the shear line. A surface trough NE of French Guinea-Brazil border is triggering scattered moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 44W and the French Guinea-Brazil coastline. Upper-level winds are streaming thick cirrus across the Tropical Atlantic from 06N to 11N between the central African coast and 57W. Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh northerly winds and 9 to 13 ft seas in NW swell are present in the central Atlantic N of 26N between 43W and 62W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted from the Bahamas northward, between 62W and 76W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found S of the Canary Islands from 12N to 27N between the NW African coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate NE trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 17N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W will gradually diminish through early Fri. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force will continue off northeastern Florida through tonight ahead of a cold front that will move across the waters offshore northeastern Florida early on Fri, then across the northern waters through Sat. The front is forecast to become stationary across the central waters by early Sun. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to precede the front today and tonight. Another cold front may move across the basin late in the weekend into early next week. $$ Chan