921 AXNT20 KNHC 311125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force south winds with frequent gusts to gale force will continue off NE Florida and north of 27N west of 77W through this evening, ahead of a cold front forecast that will enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 40 kt are occurring north of 27N and east of 90W. Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are occurring from 22N to 27N between 87W and 90W. Seas are currently 8-12 ft. By mid-morning, winds are expected to diminish to strong speeds with seas marginally subsiding to 8-11 ft. Conditions across the northern Gulf will continue improving through the day. For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 02S30W to 01N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 36W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between 32W-36W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-36W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-41W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 32W-36W, and from 03N to 09N between 41W-50W. Similar activity is within 60 nm of 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is well northwest of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 08N52W, and within 30 nm of 04N49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to 28N94W and to inland extreme southern Texas. A squall line out ahead of it extends from near Pensacola, Florida to 28N89W, where it transitions to a trough to 28N91W and to 26N93W. Latest NWS doppler radar data shows numerous moderate to strong convection north of 28N and within 180 nm out ahead of the squall line. Numerous lightning is being detected with this activity. Some of this activity may attain strong to severe status today. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. East of 90W, fresh to strong southerly winds were depicted by an overnight ASCAT pass. A small area of near-gale force south winds was indicated by the same pass near 26N85W. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are elsewhere east of 90W, except for winds reaching frequent gusts to gale-force north of 28N and east of 87W. W of 90W, winds are generally of moderate speeds. Wave heights are in the 7-10 ft range north of 23N, except for higher wave heights of 8-12 ft north of 25N and east of 87W. Elsewhere, wave heights are in the range of 5-8 ft, except for lower wave heights of 3-5 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Recent infrared imagery indicate several ongoing fires inland over South Texas and northeastern Mexico, with smoke blowing east over the west- central Gulf. Earlier images from National Data Buoy Center's buoy cameras and surface observations indicate that the smoke remains aloft at this time. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities due to smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. For the forecast, strong southerly flow across the basin north of 22N east of 90W will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by early this afternoon as the aforementioned cold front reaches from near Apalachicola, Florida to near 26N92W and to 26N97W. Frequent gusts to gale force north of 28N east of 87W will diminish to strong speeds by mid- morning. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by this evening, and become stationary from central Florida to the central Gulf near 27N90W, and to southern Texas by late on Fri and through Sat. Its western part will begin to lift back north as a warm front through Mon as southerly return flow begins to dominate the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front over the far NE waters through this morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging associated to high pressure off the southeastern United States coast dominates the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted over most of the basin, except in the south- central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras where the trades pulse to strong and near-gale force speeds. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range across the Caribbean, except for higher wave heights of 8-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Fri night, except diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by early on Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish across much of the basin during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends from near 31N47W to 27N50W and to 24N58W. Strong northwest winds are present north of 30N and west of the front to near 60W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 9-12 ft due to northwest swell. Well to the west of this frontal boundary fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds are noted to the southwest of a line from near 31N76W to 26N74W and to the coast of northern Hispaniola near 20N71W. These winds also cover the approaches to the Windward Passage, the Straits of Florida and Florida coastal waters. The exception is over the far northern waters northeast of Florida, mainly north of 27N and west of 77W, where strong southerly winds with frequent gusts to gale-force are present as described above under Special Features. Wave heights are in the 5-8 ft range, except for higher wave heights of 8-11 ft off northeastern Florida. An area of 8-10 ft wave heights due to northwest swell is north of 29N and between 51W-66W. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, the gradient associated to the Azores high pressure center near 34N26W supports moderate northeast to east winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft seas. Overnight ASCAT data shows northeast winds of fresh speeds within 180 nm of the coast of Africa. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds south of 23N will gradually diminish through early Fri. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force will continue off northeastern Florida through early this evening ahead of a cold front that will move across the waters offshore northeastern Florida early on Fri, then across the northern waters through Sat. The front is forecast to become stationary across the central waters during the weekend and gradually weaken into early next week. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to precede the front today and tonight. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the start of next week. $$ Aguirre