000 AXNT20 KNHC 302305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong southerly winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida early Thu morning through evening, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights of 9-11 ft are expected with these winds by Thu morning. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A scatterometer satellite pass a few hours ago captured strong to locally near gale-force southerly winds affecting most of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong southerly flow with frequent gusts to gale force will continue to spread to the eastern Gulf tonight. Seas are peaking at at 10 to 14 ft, primarily N of 25N, and will propagate eastward tonight and Thu morning. Conditions are forecast start to improve by late Thu morning. For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues to be located over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 01S32W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring north of the Equator to 05N and between 24W to 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico. A line of cloudiness and a few showers are seen ahead of the frontal boundary N of 24N, but the most significant weather is occurring inland over the Mississippi Valley. The rest of the basin is dominated by 1026 mb high pressure system located between Bermuda and the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient between this system and the lower pressures associated with the storm system over the central US and associated cold front is resulting in the Gale Warning described in the Special Features. Moderate to fresh S winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found W of 95W. Fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over the E Gulf. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected across much of the basin north of 22N, with these hazardous marine conditions gradually diminishing and improving from west to east through tonight. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico supports these wind speeds. A cold front in the Texas coastal waters will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu evening, becoming stationary while drifting northward through Sat. Southerly return flow will dominate by the end of the weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and the Outer Banks extends into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and lower pressures in NW South America result in fresh to strong trades across the central and western Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are affecting the Windward Passage and offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the central and western Caribbean Sea, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia and E Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N57W, where it transitions into a stationary front to Hispaniola. A few showers are observed near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are occurring behind the frontal boundary to offshore Florida. The strongest winds are present between Haiti and the eastern Bahamas, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas greater than 8 ft are found N of 28N and between 51W and 67W. In the remaining area behind the front, seas are 5-8 ft. A 1024 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft are noted S of 22N and between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to locally strong NE-NW winds are found E of 20W, with the strongest winds occurring near the African coast. Seas in this area are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a nearly stationary front extending from 22N65W to the north coast of Hispaniola will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N through Thu. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida Thu and Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will move across the N waters on Sat, then stall and begin to drift northward on Sun while weakening. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the start of next week. $$ DELGADO