000
AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong southerly winds with frequent gusts
to gale force are expected off NE Florida early Thu morning 
through evening, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter 
the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights of 9-11 ft are expected
with these winds by Thu morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong southerly flow with frequent 
gusts to gale force over the central Gulf today, will spread to 
the eastern Gulf this evening. Seas are expected to peak at 10 to
14 ft. Conditions should start to improve by late Thu morning.

For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains confined primarily to the African 
Continent. An ITCZ extends from near 02N18W through EQ30W to NW 
of Sao Luis, Brazil near 01N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04S to 03N between 24W and the NW
Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning. 

A strong ridge of high pressure extends from N Florida to the N 
Bay of Campeche. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimetery 
data reveal strong to near-gale southerly winds, and seas of 8 to 
12 ft across the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds with seas
at 8 to 10 ft are found across the W Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over the E Gulf. Areas of 
smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of 
Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due
to agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to 
gale force, are expected across much of the basin north of 22N, 
with these hazardous marine conditions gradually diminishing and 
improving from W to E through tonight. A strong pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening 
low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico supports these wind speeds. 
A cold front will approach the coast of Texas this evening, and 
extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu 
evening. Then, the front will become stationary while drifting 
northward through Sat. Southerly return flow will dominate by the 
end of the weekend into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large 1025 mb high pressure S of the Azores will continue to
channel NE to ENE trade winds across the basin through early next
week. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers near the
Windward Islands. A 1009 mb low is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Panama-Colombia border and adjacent
Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft 
are present for the central and S central basin, N of Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft are found over the
N central and NW basin. Gentle to moderate trades with seas at 4 
to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure near the Azores will continue to 
promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near 
the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of 
Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and 
in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee 
of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late tonight. Moderate 
to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the 
Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across 
the basin for the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N49W across 24N60W to 
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are found near and up to 80nm SE, 
and 30nm NW of this front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
 
Residual northerly swell with seas at 6 to 8 ft, and moderate to 
fresh NE winds are evident from the SE Bahamas northward, between
60W and 75W. Moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 6
to 8 ft are seen from the Equator to 22N between 20W and
60W/Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canary Islands N of 22N
between the NW African coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate winds
with seas at 5 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned nearly stationary front 
will continue to support scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the 
adjacent waters likely through tonight. Fresh to strong easterly 
winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N to 24N through 
Thu. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are
expected off NE Florida Thu and Thu night ahead of the next cold 
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front 
will move across the N waters on Sat, then stall and begin to 
drift northward on Sun while weakening. Fairly tranquil marine 
conditions are forecast for the start of next week.

$$

Chan