000 AXNT20 KNHC 300432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between deepening low pressure over Texas and high pressure near Florida will allow for strong to near-gale force southerly winds with frequent gusts to gale force across the W Gulf to develop this evening. These conditions are expected to spread eastward across most of the Gulf on Wed. Seas in the W Gulf will reach 8 to 10 ft this evening, then 10 to 14 ft by Wed morning before shifting into the central Gulf Wed afternoon. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined primarily to the African Continent near Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ extends from near 04N14W to 01S26W to 00S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06S to 04N between 14W and the NW Brazilian coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Feature section above on the Gale Warning A weak 1019 mb high pressure is positioned near Spring Hill, Florida, near 28N83W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin with only a few cirrus clouds visible on satellite imagery this evening. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and deepening low pressure system over the central US is responsible for fresh to strong southerly winds over most of the western Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are found in the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are present W of 90W, with the highest seas occurring near the offshore Texas waters. Seas of 2- 5 ft prevail S of 25N and E of 90W, with 1-2 ft elsewhere. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly flow and rough seas will develop across the basin tonight. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected north of 22N and west of 87W, with building seas of up to 12 to 14 ft across the central and north-central Gulf on Wed and Wed evening. These hazardous marine conditions will be the result of a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico. A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by Wed evening, and extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. The front is forecast to stall and gradually dissipate into the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 80 nm of the Panama and Colombia coasts due to lower pressure and abundant moisture in the region. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is under tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass reveals fresh to strong trades across the central and western Caribbean, mainly W of 70W. The strongest winds are found between the Cayman Islands and the Isle of Youth, Cuba, within the Windward Passage, and in the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest wave heights occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the north-central and western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N51W to Hispaniola near 20N70W and cloudiness with embedded showers are noted within 100 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. A surface trough is analyzed behind the front from 31N67W to 29N76W. Winds between the front and surface trough are moderate to fresh with the strongest winds occurring N of 30N. Seas behind the front are 8-10 ft, mainly occurring N of 28N and between 55W and 71W. Over the central Atlantic, a 1026 mb high pressure system north of our area dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas of 6-8 ft are evident in satellite derived winds from the Equator to 26N and E of 55W. Seas of 6-9 ft in northerly swell prevail N of 10N between the African coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through Wed night. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N tonight. Winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night. $$ Nepaul