000
AXNT20 KNHC 290458
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
11N15W to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N24W to the 
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed within 210 nm of the ITCZ W of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 27N85W, providing a 
fairly stable airmass to suppress any shower activity. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas are over the eastern 
Gulf near the high pressure. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE 
winds are present over the southern and western Gulf, except 
locally strong off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 
of 3-5 prevail, except as high as 6-7 ft off the NW Yucatan. 
Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities to 3-5 miles 
within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the 
Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf 
will support gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, and 
moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through 
early this morning, except fresh to strong north-northwest of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly winds over the western Gulf are 
expected to gradually increase to strong to near gale force 
speeds from this afternoon through Wed. These winds along with 
rough seas will spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed 
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by 
late Wed. A line of showers and thunderstorms could accompany 
this cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed afternoon. The 
front is expected to weaken and move slow along the central Gulf 
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line is over the western Caribbean from 16N82W to 
17N87.5W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring over the 
NW Caribbean Sea from 16N-20N between 81W-88W. Scattered showers 
are also present within 60 nm of the coasts of NW Colombia and 
eastern Panama. A recent ASCAT satellite pass depicts fresh NE 
winds over the western Caribbean Sea, except strong winds are 
noted in the lee of Cuba and offshore of Colombia. Strong NE 
winds are also likely occurring between the Windward Passage and 
Jamaica. The ASCAT data shows moderate trade winds over the 
eastern Caribbean, east of 70W. Seas average 5-7 ft over the 
western Caribbean, except up to 7-10 ft offshore Colombia. Seas 
of 3-5 ft prevail over the eastern portion of the basin.

For the forecast, the shear-line in the Gulf of Honduras will 
keep lingering clouds and showers over the NW Caribbean through 
at least tonight. High pressure north of the area will promote 
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the 
coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the 
Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of 
Honduras through the week. Winds will diminish in the lee of 
Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night. Moderate to 
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will diminish somewhat 
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the 
high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge axis extends from 30N58W to 26N68W to a 1022 mb 
high pressure, centered over the Bahamas near 25N76W. The 
surface ridge axis continues from there into the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are within a couple 
hundred nm of the ridge axis. An east-west oriented stationary 
front is along 31N, between 72W and the coast of Georgia. Recent 
ASCAT data shows fresh W winds north of 29N between 66W-76W. A 
cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N54W to 
27N58W, where it transitions to a stationary front, which 
continues southwestward to the N coast of the Dominican Republic 
near 20N71W. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Winds 
associated with the front have weakened significantly, and are 
now moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the 
aforementioned areas of the western and central Atlantic, except 
6-8 ft north of 29N between 55W-75W. 

Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N39W 
dominates the eastern Atlantic. A 1009 mb low pressure centered 
near 31N16W extends a surface trough southwestward across the 
Canary Islands. Fresh NW to N winds are over the Canary Islands, 
to the west of the low. Farther south, fresh winds are noted in 
scatterometer data in the tropical Atlantic from 04N-16N between 
30W-57W, where seas are averaging 7 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the front extending from 31N54W to the N coast 
of Hispaniola will bring prolonged showers across Hispaniola and 
the adjacent waters while it transitions to a shear-line by 
mid-week. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring 
fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south-southwest 
of the Bahamas beginning Tue. Winds will also increase to fresh 
to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed 
through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to 
enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much 
south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night.

$$
Hagen