000 AXNT20 KNHC 282244 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2244 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 04N11W to 00N21W to 02S35W and to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure system located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico dominates the entire basin, providing a fairly stable airmass to suppress any shower activity. Moderate to fresh E-SW winds are present in the southern and western Gulf, while gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are found W of 90W and S of 25N, while 1-2 ft are prevalent in the rest of the gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through tonight, except fresh to strong north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds along with rough seas will spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by late Wed. The front is forecast to weaken and slow along the central Gulf through the end of the week. Return flow prevails for the start of the weekend with a weak cold front possible through the remainder of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The final stage of a cold front, a shear line, extends from the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti to the Bay Islands of Honduras and southern Belize. Cloudiness and a few isolated showers are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also present within 60 nm of the coasts of NW Colombia and Panama due to diurnal storm activity that formed in the afternoon hours. The rest of the basin is fairly quiet. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago depicted fresh to strong NE winds occurring in the central and western Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia and the Windward Passage, S to 16N and E of Jamaica. Seas of 4-8 ft are noted in the central and western Caribbean, with the highest seas affecting the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a shear-line from Haiti to south of Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras will keep lingering showers over the NW Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward to Hispaniola. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary. Fresh to occasionally strong S-SW winds are found ahead of the cold front, N of 26N and W of 47W. Seas in the area described range between 5 and 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail behind the frontal boundary to offshore Florida, along with seas of 5-8 ft. A 1026 mb high pressure system located over the central Atlantic dominates the rest of the basin, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades S of 20N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region are 6-9 ft. A weakening low pressure system near 29N17W, just north of the Canary Islands, is producing disorganized convection well northeast of the center and north of our area. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are noted N of 26N and E of 29W. This system is generating a large region of NW swell with wave heights of 8-12 ft E of 39W and N of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will bring prolonged showers across Hispaniola and the adjacent waters while it transitions to a shear-line by mid-week. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south- southwest of the Bahamas beginning Tue. Winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night. $$ DELGADO