000 AXNT20 KNHC 281803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 04N11W 04N15W, to the Equator along 21W, to 02S30W, and to 02S44W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N to 05N between 13W and 20W; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N southward between 38W and the coast of Brazil near 50W/51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N86W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds have been in the area today. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through tonight, except fresh to strong north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds along with rough seas will spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by late Wed. The front is forecast to weaken and slow along the central Gulf through the end of the week. Return flow prevails for the start of the weekend with a weak cold front possible through the remainder of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost end of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches the northern sections of Hispaniola. A shear line continues from Hispaniola, to just to the south of Jamaica, toward the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers cover the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from Honduras to 20N from 80W westward. Fresh NE winds are to the north of the shear line from 80W westward. frontal boundary in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the NW corner of the area. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, in clusters of broken to overcast multilayered clouds, cover the area that is from 13N to the shear line/stationary front from 80W eastward, and from 14N southward from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 200 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 79W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from the Yucatan Channel, near 20N74W to 18N75W to 16N78W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from the Yucatan Channel eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. A cold front and a shear line will keep lingering showers over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and Hispaniola this morning. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will promote fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N57W, to 24N65W, to the northern sections of Hispaniola. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate are within 150 nm to the east of the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 27N northward from the stationary front westward and northwestward, and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere to the west and northwest of the stationary front. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of the area that is from 50W westward. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N40W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 30W and the stationary front. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic winds cover this area. A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N19W. A surface trough extends from the 1004 mb low pressure center, to the Canary Islands, to 24N20W, to 23N30W. Fresh to strong winds are within 240 nm of the 1004 mb low pressure center, in the W quadrant. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 8 feet to 12 feet from 19N northward from 25W eastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 250 nm to 400 nm to the NE of the 1004 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are from 05N to 18N between 35W and 55W. Mostly fresh to some moderate winds are from 55W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A slowly-moving cold front extends from 24N65W to the north- central coast of Hispaniola, with moderate to locally fresh winds west of it. The front will bring prolonged showers across Hispaniola and the adjacent waters while it transitions to a shear-line by mid-week. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters S of 23N- 24N beginning on Tue. Then, winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. $$ MT/JL