000 AXNT20 KNHC 281014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 38W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1021 mb located over the eastern Gulf near 26N85W dominates the basin, producing gentle to moderate winds over much of the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. Light and variable winds are near the high pressure center. Fresh to locally strong east winds are seen near the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed over the Yucatan Channel based on a recent scatterometer data. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SE waters, including the Yucatan Channel and the waters just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in the 1-3 ft range are noted elsewhere. The southerly flow is advecting some low-level clouds across the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through tonight. Then, southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds along with rough seas are going to spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across Haiti, then a shear-line continues over the NW Caribbean, crossing S of Jamaica into the Gulf of Honduras. Low level clouds, with embedded showers, associated with the front are affecting Hispaniola. Patches of low level clouds, with possible showers, are related to the shear-line. Farther south, showers and thunderstorms have been flaring up over northern Colombia and western Venezuela. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is also seen over the NE Caribbean. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data confirmed the presence of the shear-line, with fresh to locally strong NE winds to the N of the line, and gentle to moderate E wind to the S of it. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted across the Windward Passage and downwind to near 18N75W. Similar wind speeds are also observed over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are across the reminder of the east and central Caribbean. Recent altimeter data show seas of 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-8 ft are near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front and the shear line will keep lingering showers over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and Hispaniola this morning. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through at least Wed. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N58W to Haiti. A band of low level clouds, with embedded showers is associated with the frontal boundary. Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong NW winds across the waters N of 28N W of 65W. Mainly moderate N winds are affecting the Bahamas. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range across much of the western Atlantic, highest north of 27N between 65W-77W. Farther east, a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 31N42W dominates the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1003 mb low pressure is spinning near 30N20W, with a surface trough extending from the low center to near 25N27W. The low is generating some shower activity, mainly between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds on the western semicircle of the low center, and just N of the above mentioned surface trough. These winds are affecting mainly the waters N of 25N between 22W and 28W. Seas of 12-16 ft are also associated with the low, covering roughly the waters N of 25N between the western Canary Islands and 34W in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong NW winds associated with the aforementioned cold front over the waters N of 27N will diminish today. The front will continue to move SE, affecting Hispaniola over the next couple of days while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters S of 23N-24N beginning on Tue. Then, winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds E of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. $$ GR