370 AXNT20 KNHC 271801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough and the ITCZ are broken up by a surface trough, that is along 08N20W 04N19W 02N20W, to the Equator along 22W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01S to 04N between 17W and 29W, and from 04N to 13N between 16W and 22W. The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 01S/the Equator between 24W and 39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 29W and 40W. Numerous moderate to widely scattered/ scattered strong is in the coastal plains of Brazil from 02N to 04S between 44W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front is in the Atlantic Ocean, passing through 28N80W, into Florida near 28N82W, into SW coastal Alabama. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 25N89W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Fresh northerly winds are in the Straits of Florida. Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere. A dissipating cold front offshore the Florida Big Bend area will sustain moderate to fresh winds over the SE Gulf, including the Florida Strait through early this afternoon. A 1020 mb high is centered over the central Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh return flow across the W Gulf. Toward mid-week, fresh to strong with locally near-gale southerly flow and rough seas will develop across much of the Gulf ahead of a cold front that will approach the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost end of a cold front passes through 23N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Turks and Caicos Islands, to the Windward Passage. The cold front becomes dissipating in the Windward Passage, and it continues to just to the north of Jamaica to 18N81W. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of the frontal boundary in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the NW corner of the area. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate in clusters of broken to overcast multilayered clouds, cover the area that is from 70W westward. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 66W and 70W. Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the central sections, and in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. A dissipating stationary front stretches from the Windward Passage to W of Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail across the region through early this afternoon. This front will dissipate later this afternoon. High pressure over the central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the S central Gulf, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through Tue night. Trades across the N central and NE basin will become moderate to fresh by Tue morning. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will persist for the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 23N70W, beyond the Windward Passage, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east of the cold front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 28N northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 60W westward. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N72W, to the eastern coast of Florida near 28N. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N49W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward between 40W and the 31N61W-to-Windward Passage cold front. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic winds cover this area. A third cold front is in eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through 31N15W, through the Canary Islands to 22N20W, 17N30W, and to 17N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward from the cold front eastward; and from 27N northward between 20W and 30W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from the cold front to 26N from 40W eastward, and from 15 feet to 20 feet from 26N northward from 40W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are near 31N25W. The sea heights range mostly from 6 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, with some isolated areas of 7 feet to 8 feet. Near gale-force to gale-force winds are from 29N northward between 24W and 30W, from 120 nm to 270 nm to the southwest of the 997 mb low pressure center that is near 32N24W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 23N to 29N between 20W and 31W. Fresh southerly winds are from 25N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh northerly winds are from 25N northward between 30W and 40W. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 30W and 60W. A weak cold front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N73W to central Florida. Another front stretches from 31N61W to the Windward Passage. These features will sustain fresh to strong winds for the offshore waters E of N and central Florida, and the W central Atlantic waters through Mon. By Mon night, a high pressure building eastward from Florida should bring improving conditions. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft in the vicinity of the fronts through Mon. $$ MT/PC