000 AXNT20 KNHC 261033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 997 mb low pressure near 38N28W is forecast to move south-southeastward to near 33N25W during the next 24 hours. Gales on the west side of the low pressure are likely to move south of 31N early Sun morning. The Meteo-France outlook for the period 27/0600-28/0600 UTC calls for cyclonic near gale or gale over portions of the marine zones Meteor, Irving and Madeira. Seas will build to 15-20 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 05N16W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to 02S33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 02W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A reinforcing cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and is accompanied by a line of clouds with no precipitation. Overnight ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh NW winds over the NE Gulf behind the front. High pressure of 1021 mb has built in over the western Gulf, where gentle anticyclonic winds prevail. The ASCAT satellite data shows fresh N winds in the Yucatan Channel, increasing to strong farther south, to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest buoy data and altimeter pass show seas of 2-4 ft over the Gulf. For the forecast, the reinforcing cold front is expected to move out of the basin by this afternoon. A strong cold front will approach northern Florida tonight, which will bring moderate to fresh winds across the eastern Gulf later today through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh return flow can be expected across the western Gulf by early next week. On Tue and Wed, fresh to strong southerly flow will spread across most of the Gulf as a cold front approaches the Texas coast by early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, where fairly dry air is in place. A nearly stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from central Cuba to the north-central coast of Honduras. Isolated showers are near and within 60 nm NW of the front. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind pass shows strong N winds behind the front, to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are likely 7-9 ft in this area. The ASCAT data showed gentle winds east of the front to Jamaica, where seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh trades prevail over the eastern Caribbean east of 77W, locally strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in this area, except 7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, the stationary front will sustain fresh to strong northerly winds across the region, including the Gulf of Honduras, through this morning. The front will gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean by Sun. High pressure north of the area will bring fresh to strong trades in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage by late Sun and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will continue through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean N of Colombia will persist through early next week. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist for the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N69W to Cat Island, Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm behind and 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 24N and east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front, while moderate NW winds are west of the front. However, fresh to strong winds are continuing to move into the area to the east of northern Florida, in association with a reinforcing cold front, which currently extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Buoy data from NOAA buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W shows seas to 6 ft. A 1021 mb high pressure near 30N51W extends surface ridging across the central Atlantic, with gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevailing north of 24N between 47W-60W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N25W to 23N35W to 23N47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the cold front, mainly north of 27N and east of 22W. The overnight ASCAT data from Friday evening shows strong to near gale force winds on both sides of the front, mainly north of 27N between 26W-38W. Seas are likely currently 12 to 15 ft in this area. The 12 ft seas extend as far south as 26N and as far west as 38W, with 8 ft seas extending to near 23N45W. Fresh trade winds prevail in the tropical Atlantic from 03N- 17N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, with seas mainly 8 to 9 ft in the area. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front extending to the Bahamas and Cuba will continue progressing eastward over the western and central Atlantic through the weekend, bringing fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it through Sun. The cold front moving off the central Florida coast will have fresh to strong westerly winds following the front as it also moves eastward over the western Atlantic through Sun. A third cold front will approach northern Florida tonight, bringing a reinforcing round of strong winds through Sun morning. By early next week, a high pressure over Florida should bring improving conditions. $$ AReinhart