000 AXNT20 KNHC 251802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N14W. The ITCZ begins from 03N14W to 00N20W to 03S30W to the Brazil coast near 00SN46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W and 23W, and from 08S to 00N between 19W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moved east of the Gulf of Mexico, now extending over the Florida Straits bringing fresh to strong NW winds behind it over the eastern Gulf. A secondary cold front, void of precipitation, stretches from Destin, Florida to the central Gulf near 26N90W. A surge of fresh to locally strong NW winds is noted behind this front to 90W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is located over the Bay of Campeche, allowing for moderate to fresh NW winds in the northwest Gulf SW return flow in the southwest Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except near the Yucatan Channel, sea heights are up to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue behind the cold front that moved east of the basin this morning. The secondary front will move mainly across the northern waters, reaching the NE Gulf by this afternoon, exiting the basin tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The minimal gale-force winds have diminished off the coast of Colombia this morning. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions over the central and easter Caribbean, with fresh to strong trade winds noted in a recent scatterometer pass. A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh northerly winds are noted behind the front in the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. Wave heights are in the 8-11 ft range in the south-central and SW Caribbean, reaching up to 12 ft off NW Colombia noted in buoy data. Buoy and altimeter data also noted 7 to 9 ft seas over the north-central and eastern basin and 3 to 6 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the aerial extent of the fresh to strong winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will gradually decrease today. A smaller area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. The cold front will bring fresh to strong winds across the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras today and tonight. The front will gradually dissipate by Sun. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 30N75W to the northern Bahamas, to the Florida Straits, to western Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm ahead of it. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of the front with fresh to locally strong NW winds behind It. Further east, another cold front extends across the central and eastern Atlantic from 30N31W to 21N50W. Strong winds are noted behind the front, north of 25N. High pressure between the two fronts extends a ridge to the Greater Antilles and is allowing for moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow between 45W and 55W. Fresh to strong trades are noted in scatterometer data west of 50W to the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Rough seas are noted north of 20 N and between 55W and 30W, as well as south of 20N and west of 53W to the Lesser Antilles. Mainly 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist ahead of a cold front that is currently moving off the south Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by this afternoon, and from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat morning. A reinforcing cold front will push off the NE Florida coast this evening and slowly dissipate by Sat. This front will bring another round of fresh to strong winds behind it through tonight. By Sat night, a third cold front will move off the Florida coast and bring more fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast through Sun. For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W-50W through tonight. These winds will continue to spread eastward through the weekend. Wave heights are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area affected by these winds. $$ Mora