000 AXNT20 KNHC 242201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America will once again pulse winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach 12 ft. These conditions will gradually improve afterwards and through the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 01N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N27W to near 00N31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection noted from 04S to 05N between 12W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO...A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to just north of Cancun, Mexico. A post-frontal trough extends a bit into the Gulf from the Florida Big Bend region. Deep moisture along and behind the front is leading to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection that extends within about 120 nm NW of the cold front. Behind the front, a 1024 mb high pressure has surged south and is just offshore Tampico, Mexico. A secondary cold front, void of precipitation, is noted from the Louisiana coast to near Corpus Christi Bay. A surge of fresh to locally strong winds is noted behind this front, mainly N of 27N. Elsewhere in the Gulf, behind the main front, mainly moderate to fresh N winds dominate, although some strong winds are within 180 nm of the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ahead of the front in the SE Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas through the Gulf are 4 to 7 ft, highest where the strong winds are occurring. As for the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening, exiting the Gulf waters by tonight. Winds will diminish thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the frontal boundary through this evening. The weaker cold front in the NW Gulf will move mainly across the northern waters, reaching the NE Gulf by Fri. It will exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front. Mainly fresh NW winds will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Mainly fresh winds dominate the basin, with strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and moderate winds in the NW basin. Locally strong winds are also occurring S of Haiti and in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras have diminished this afternoon. Wave heights are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south- central and SW Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the north-central and eastern basin, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain pulsing winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the east and central Caribbean through tonight, then the aerial extent of these winds will diminish on Fri, with an area of fresh to strong trades persisting over the south-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds across the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The front will gradually dissipate by Sat. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast this afternoon. Ahead of it, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring N of 27N and W of 73W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted behind the front. A 1026 mb high pressure nearly stationary just E of Bermuda is dominate most of the remainder of the waters to the W of 50W, leading to anticyclonic winds of gentle to moderate magnitude for areas N of 23N. To the south, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Farther E, a cold front stretches from 32N37W to 23N50W. To the north of the front, fresh to strong NW winds dominate, with mainly moderate winds to the east. Scattered moderate convection is along the front, N of 28N. Then, across the eastern North Atlantic S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades once again dominate. Seas behind the front in the central Atlantic range from 8 to 12 ft, with 8 to 10 ft seas in the tropical Atlantic S of 15N. Elsewhere in the basin, 5 to 7 ft seas dominate. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage, will pulse to strong tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds off Florida will persist through Fri ahead of a cold front that is currently moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat morning. At this time, a reinforcing cold front will extend from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. This will bring another round of fresh to strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun. For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it south- southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W-50W, tonight through Fri night, spreading eastward through weekend. Wave heights are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area affected by these winds. $$ KONARIK