000 AXNT20 KNHC 232221 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are currently NE-E 20-30 kt, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale force tonight and again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12 to 13 ft early Thu morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 28W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Mexico Beach, Florida to 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N93W. A pre-frontal squall line extends from 29N84W to 26N86W at 1800 UTC. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with the squall line. Recent buoy data shows seas of 7 ft over the northeast Gulf, but seas are likely up to 8 ft near the squall line. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with moderate to fresh S winds east of the front, higher in and near the thunderstorms. Seas are 5 to 8 ft west of the front, and 3 to 6 ft east of the front. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds will continue across the NE Gulf through this evening, and SE Gulf until Thu morning ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through Thu morning, mostly in the SW Gulf. The front will reach the Yucatan Peninsula mid Thu morning, and then over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba Fri morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu and bring moderate to fresh winds behind it. This front will arrive at the NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. An area of cloudiness with possible isolated showers is noted to the south of as well as across Hispaniola, moving westward in the trade wind flow, with additional cloudiness and possible showers from near the Cayman Islands to portions of western Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and south-southwest of Haiti. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south-southwest of Haiti, and mainly 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sustain pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras to pulse again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is west of northern Florida with fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft ahead of it north of 28N to 78W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N66W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft seas, from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally fresh to strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell. Farther east, a remnant frontal trough extends from 31N46W to 24N61W. A 60-nm wide line of clouds and isolated showers accompanies the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the central Atlantic north of 29N between 40W and 55W, with stronger winds north of 31N due to a large, and complex gale-force low pressure system well north of the area. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently reaching as far south as 29N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft from 29N to 31N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a 1027 mb high pressure north of the area and southwest of the Azores near 35N28W to 31N45W to 24N60W. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted elsewhere southeast and south of the ridging, except moderate to fresh south of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across the waters southeast and south of the ridging. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida are going to continue through Thu morning before shifting eastward Thu afternoon. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast late Thu afternoon. It will maintain fresh to strong southerly winds to its E, and northerly winds to its W over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing more fresh to locally strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun. For the forecast east of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds. $$ Lewitsky