000 AXNT20 KNHC 231704 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are currently NE-E 25-30 kt, according to ASCAT data from late Wed morning. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale force tonight and again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft early Thu morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 03N to 05N, east of 18W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 02N and west of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Destin, Florida to 24N90W to the south- central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A pre-frontal squall line extends off the eastern Florida Panhandle into the northeast Gulf, from 30N84W to 27N86.5W at 1500 UTC. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with the squall line. Recent buoy data shows seas of 7 ft over the northeast Gulf, but seas are likely up to 8 ft near the squall line. A pre-frontal trough extends across the eastern Bay of Campeche from 21.5N92W to 18.5N92W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with fresh S winds east of the front. Seas are 6-8 ft over much of the northern, west-central, and southwest Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft over the SE Gulf and near the coast of Texas. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach the SE Gulf tonight, and move just SE of the basin by Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through tonight, mostly in the SW Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Thu afternoon, bringing fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of it and moderate to fresh NW winds behind it. The front will weaken as it approaches the eastern Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. An area of cloudiness with possible isolated showers is noted to the south of Hispaniola, moving westward in the trade wind flow. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over most of the basin. However, strong trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean, from 11N-14N between 72W-78W. ASCAT also shows strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong E winds are also likely occurring to the south of Hispaniola. Altimeter satellite wave data from earlier this morning shows seas up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 10-12 ft offshore of Colombia. Seas are likely 6-8 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft to the south of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse again tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Recent buoy data offshore NE Florida is measuring fresh southerly winds, ahead of a cold front located west of the area. Although available observations only show fresh winds in the area, models and the official TAFB forecast suggest that fresh to strong S winds are likely occurring off northern Florida. Seas are likely 5-7 ft in this area. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 31N69W. Recent ASCAT data show fresh trades south of 23N and west of 65W, where seas are likely 6-7 ft, and moderate to fresh SE winds through the central and NW Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail north of 26N between 60W-70W. Seas are 4-5 ft north of 27N between 65W-77W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 31N47W to 24N61W. A 60-nm wide line of clouds and isolated showers accompanies the dying front. Over the central Atlantic, ASCAT shows fresh winds north of 30N between 40W-57W, due to a large, gale-force low pressure system well north of the area near 44N44W. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently reaching as far south as 29N, with seas of 8-10 ft from 29N-31N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a 1029 mb high pressure near 34N29W to 26N40W to 25N52W. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the latest ASCAT pass from the Cabo Verde Islands to 23N, east of 30W. Seas are 10-11 ft in this area. Generally fresh trades prevail from 05N-15N across the tropical Atlantic, with 7-9 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida will continue through Thu. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast by Thu afternoon with the fresh to strong southerly winds persisting ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N through Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely with the front Thu through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds behind it. A third cold front is expected to move southward across the western Atlantic Sat night with strong westerly winds following it through Sun. For the forecast east of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W-50W, Thu night through Fri night. Seas are forecast to build to 11-14 ft over the area. $$ Hagen