000 AXNT20 KNHC 231006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are currently NE strong breeze and are pulsing to gale force tonight and again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12 ft overnight and on Wed night in the highest winds. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 02N and west of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Alabama coast near 30N88W to Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. A squall line extends off the Florida Panhandle into the northeast Gulf, from 30N86W to 28N88W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with this. Seas are 8 ft in this area. A trough extends across the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 19N92W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front. Seas range 4-7 ft outside of the NE Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the eastern Gulf through this morning ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through Thu night, mostly in the southwest Gulf. The front will reach the SE waters by Wed night, and move just SE of the area by Thu night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning and bring moderate to fresh winds behind it. The front will approach the eastern Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh E trades prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest observations indicate moderate E trades in the Eastern Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the W Caribbean, SE trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. While no significant convection is apparent on satellite across the Caribbean, patches of low- level moisture embedded in the trade flow may produce isolated showers tonight. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras to pulse again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean through Fri. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade- wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are likely off the NE Florida coast ahead of the strong cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Seas range 5-7 ft across the western Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 24N62W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds prevail west of the strong, with moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front. Seas range 8-9 ft E of 50W. Across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, fresh to locally strong NE trades prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N swell. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop off NE Florida from this morning and continue through Thu. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast by Thu afternoon with the fresh to strong southerly winds persisting ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds behind it. A third cold front is expected to southward across the western Atlantic Sat night with strong westerly winds following it through Sun. $$ AReinhart