000 AXNT20 KNHC 230454 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are currently NE strong breeze and are pulsing to gale force tonight and again Wed night. Seas will peak around 12 ft overnight and on Wed night in the highest winds. Winds and seas should gradually diminish through the end of the week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted south of 07N west of 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the W Gulf from 30N93W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N between 87W-90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NW winds W of the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted SE of the front. Seas are 8-10 ft N of 23N and west of 90W, and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving SE across the basin. Fresh to strong southerly winds will pick up across the eastern Gulf through early Wed morning ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through Thu night, mostly in the southwest Gulf. The front will reach the SE waters by Wed night, and move just SE of the area by Thu night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the gale warning area, moderate to fresh E trades prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest observations indicate moderate E trades in the Eastern Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the W Caribbean, SE trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. While no significant convection is apparent on satellite across the Caribbean, patches of low- level moisture embedded in the trade flow may produce isolated showers tonight. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean through Fri. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade- wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 25N64W. W of the front to the Florida coast, moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails along the southern periphery of high pressure centered at 30N69W with 5-7 ft seas. E of 50W, across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong NE trades prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N swell. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through Wed night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected off NE Florida from Wed morning through Thu. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast by Thu afternoon. The fresh to strong southerly wind will persist ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N through Fri. $$ ERA