000 AXNT20 KNHC 220931 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning...Gale force winds, and seas to 12 ft, are ongoing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by sunrise, then pulse once again to gale fore tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong to near- gale force SE return flow to around 30 kt prevails across the western Gulf. Within these near-gale winds are frequent gusts to gale force. Seas are reaching 11 ft within this area. Winds will diminish this morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06S to 01N between 10W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on gales in the western Gulf due to frequent gusts. Aside from this area, fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the NW Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force southerly return flow is expected across the western Gulf through this morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will prevail elsewhere. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters by this afternoon. This front will reach the SE waters by late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more on gales off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the area of gale force winds, fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are reaching locally strong over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the windward passage. Moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Outside of the seas in the region of gale- force winds, seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N73W then becomes stationary to the Straits of Florida. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 29N58W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the front N of 26N. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are near the front north of 29N. Fresh easterly wind flow is found over the waters west of the Bahamas, reaching strong north of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, fresh to locally strong winds prevail. Elsewhere north of 20N and west of 45W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. A fresh set of northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters, with seas of 8-12 ft north of 26N between 25W and 45W. South of 20N, seas are in the 8-10 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The cold front will stall and dissipate by mid- week. Mainly fresh winds are noted on either side of the front. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front. $$ AL