000 AXNT20 KNHC 220444 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0410 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning...Gale force winds are ongoing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and expected to diminish below gale force by sunrise. Seas are expected to build to 10-12 ft during this time. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong SE return flow to around 30 kt prevails across the Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters late this afternoon and extends well offshore to near 24N96W. These strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to prevail tonight ahead of a cold front expected to reach the Texas coast Tue afternoon. Seas of 8-11 ft are expected to persist across these waters overnight before winds diminish slightly and begin to shift westward ahead of the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 03N between 07W to 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front continues to extend across the NW Gulf from 30N94W to 28N90W. Warm SE return flow is feeding into deepening low pressure across the Central Plains tonight. The latest ASCAT pass tonight shows an area of strong to near gale-force SE winds across the NW Gulf from 22N to 28N between 91W and 96W. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the rest of the western Gulf with fresh to locally strong winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida where the tail-end of a stationary front is located. Seas range 8-11 ft in the western and NW Gulf, with 5-7 feet in the eastern and central Gulf. For the forecast, strong southerly return flow, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected across the western Gulf tonight into Tue morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will prevail elsewhere. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters by Tue afternoon, then reach the SE waters by late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest ASCAT pass indicated strong winds prevailing over the south-central Caribbean, with the gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds prevail on the lee side of Cuba. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are noted across the rest of the basin. No significant convection is observed at this time. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night, and again Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N70W to 24N81W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N59W to 23N64W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 26N between 55W and 62W. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted with fresh easterly winds near the tail-end of the front from the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of the front between 55W and 58W, otherwise light to gentle winds prevail. Seas 4-7 ft are present in the vicinity of the front. Farther east, a cold front is moving southward across the eastern Atlantic from 31N24W to 30N38W. A 1026 mb high is noted near 29N42W with surface ridging extending out across the rest of the central Atlantic. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted near the high with gentle to moderate northerly winds behind the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are observed S of 24N across the rest of the Atlantic. Seas range 8-10 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into mid-week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. A cold front extends from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida. The front will move east across the region, then exit the area by mid-week. Mainly fresh winds are noted on either side of the front. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front. $$ AReinhart