000 AXNT20 KNHC 212301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning...Strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will increase briefly to gale force within 90 nm of the coast tonight, then diminish below gale force by sunrise. Seas are expected to build to 10-12 ft during this time. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong SE return flow to around 30 kt prevails across the Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters late this afternoon and extends well offshore to near 24N96W. These strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to prevail overnight ahead of a cold front expected to reach the Texas coast Tue afternoon. Seas of 8-11 ft are expected to persist across these waters overnight before winds diminish slightly and begin to shift westward ahead of the front. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S22W to 01N42W to coastal Brazil near 00N46.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 07W and 27W, and from 01N to 07N between 40W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends across the NW Gulf from 27N91.5W into SE Texas. Warm SE return flow is feeding into deepening low pressure across New Mexico late this afternoon, and producing a broad area of strong SE to S winds to 30 kt across the Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected through this evening and early tonight and a Gale Warning has been issued for the Texas coastal waters. Seas are 7-10 ft across the area late this afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure centered across the eastern U.S. extends a ridge SW into the eastern Gulf, behind a stalled front across the Straits of Florida. The pressure gradient across the basin is yielding moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere across the Gulf, where seas are 3-6 ft,except 6-8 ft well offshore of the strong winds off Texas. Fair skies prevail. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force southerly return flow will prevail over much of the western and northern Gulf ahead of the next cold front. That cold front will move off the Texas coast by Tue afternoon and move through the Gulf through late this week, with strong southerly flow and active weather shifting across N central portions Tue and then across the NE Gulf Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale force wind prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean during this time. Winds along the Colombian coast will increase to gale force tonight then diminish slightly by sunrise. Fresh to locally strong winds will also start to pulse Tuesday night in the Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N73W then becomes stationary across the Straits of Florida to near 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm E of the front to the N of 27N. Fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail west of the front. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 40W. High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 34N37W, with ridge extending to the west and east along 27N. Moderate to fresh E trade winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, where seas remain 8-10 ft. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high N of 20N. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into mid-week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida will move east across the region, then exit the area mid- week. Strong NW winds will follow this front along 30N. Strong S flow will set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front. $$ Stripling