000
AXNT20 KNHC 210930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07.5N12.5W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N48W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N 
between 11N and 30W, and from 01N to 03N between 42W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near south Florida to just N of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong return flow has developed
over the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5-6 ft range over the NW Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate 
through tonight. Strong to near-gale force southerly return flow 
will develop over much of the western and northern Gulf ahead of 
the next cold front. That cold front will move off the Texas coast
by Tue night and move through the Gulf through late this week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force wind prevailover the south central
Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the north central
and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over
the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into 
mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. A 
cold front extends from 31N69W to South Florida. The front will 
move east across the region, then exit the area mid-week. Strong 
NW winds will follow this front along 30N. Strong S flow may set 
up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold 
front. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to South Florida. Fresh to strong
winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail west of the front. Seas of 4-6 ft
prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in the 8-10
ft range are elsewhere across the discussion waters. High 
pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 28N49W, with ridge extending 
to the west and east along 28N. Light to gentle winds are in the 
vicinity of the high and associated ridge. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail south of 20N. 

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong 
nightly into mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward 
Passage. The cold front will move east across the region, then 
exit the area mid- week. Strong NW winds will follow this front 
along 30N. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of 
the week ahead of the next cold front. 

$$
AL