000
AXNT20 KNHC 200931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N14W to
02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N45W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N
between 20W and 45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front and south of 24N.
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of the front. Light to
gentle winds are noted east of the front. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range west of the front and south of 24N, with 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere west of the front. East of the front, seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall over the SE Gulf into
Mon, then lift north as a weak warm front into Tue. Another cold 
front will move off the Texas coast late Tue. Ahead of the front, 
widespread strong southerly winds can be expected for the start of
next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale winds are noted over the south central
Caribbean with fresh to strong winds elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, gentle
to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted over the
western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade- wind swell across
the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean during this time. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 31N60W. Light to gentle
winds are noted around the high pressure center generally north of
28N between 50W and 25W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
north of 21N. Fresh to strong winds prevail south of 21N. Seas of
4-6 ft are found north of 22N west of 50W. Seas in the 6-7 ft
range are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Seas of 8-12 ft
are elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, seas of 8-10 ft prevail.  

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong 
nightly into early next week offshore Hispaniola. A cold front 
extends from 31N80W to northern Florida. The front will move east 
across the region, becoming oriented along 25N Tue. Strong winds 
may follow this front along 30N. 
 
$$
AL