708 
AXNT20 KNHC 191658
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 01S26W to 
01S40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N 
between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along the ITCZ from 03S to 04N between 41W and the coast of 
Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to the SW Gulf 
where it becomes stationary to the Bay of Campeche. A line of 
thunderstorms is within 120 nm behind the front, extending from 
Panama City to the W Gulf near 24N96W. Similar convection is also
noted within 60 nm ahead of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are noted west of the front, transitioning to NW 
winds over the far SW Gulf. A prefrontal trough is 90 nm ahead of 
the front, allowing for moderate SE winds in the SE Gulf, 
transitioning to gentle NE winds behind the trough. Elsewhere east
of the boundaries, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in 
the 4-7 ft range west of the front and 1-3 ft east of the front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will drift E today, stall 
tonight, then gradually dissipate as it lifts N into Mon. Fresh 
to locally strong NW winds are expected to continue behind the 
front in the western Gulf today, with strong southerly winds 
expected for the start of next week in advance of the next cold 
front. This front is likely to enter the NW Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather 
conditions over the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale force 
winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, while fresh to 
strong winds are noted elsewhere over the central and eastern 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western 
Caribbean. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range over the south central 
Caribbean and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the central and 
eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, seas are in the 
4-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade- wind swell 
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and 
eastern Caribbean during this time. Winds may pulse to near gales 
each night offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough north of the region of responsibility is 
allowing for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the W of 76W, 
and over the southern Bahamas where winds transition to southeasterly.
Fresh SE winds are also over the waters north of the Caribbean 
Islands to 25N, with locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and 
the Windward Passage. Farther east, high pressure dominates the 
basin allowing for gentle to moderate winds north of 22N. Fresh to
strong winds prevail south of 22N. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted north
of 22N and west of 50W. South of 22N, seas are in the 7-9 ft 
range, reaching 10 ft east of the windward islands. Northerly 
swell has propagated into the waters north of 25N between 25W and 
50W, with seas peaking near 15 ft near 31N31W. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across the 
area will support the pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of 
Hispaniola tonight. The ridge will start to retreat eastward 
today, enabling a cold front to move off the coast of Florida. 
The front will move eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the 
Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
Mora