000 AXNT20 KNHC 182316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to the Brazilian coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 20W and 25W, and from 00N to 03N between 45W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi near 30N89W to just N of Veracruz, Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting the SE CONUS, and also the north-central Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail ahead of the front while fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front. Latest observations from Tampico, Mexico indicate gusty winds of 30 kt. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the basin, with the exception of 2-3 ft over the eastern Gulf E of 85W to the coast of Florida, and just W of the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move E through the Gulf Sat, stall in the SE Gulf Sun, then retreat northward as a warm front Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf tonight and Sat, with strong southerly winds expected for the start of next week in association with the warm front over the western and central Gulf. The next cold front may enter the NW Gulf Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the eastern and central Caribbean, with higher seas of 8-10 ft occurring off NW Colombia. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward passage where seas of 1-3 ft are observed. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The trade wind flow is transporting these patches of moisture into Nicaragua and NE Honduras where some shower activity is noted. Visible satellite imagery show the streamers downwind of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean during this time. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft near the coast of Colombia with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat. A weak cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front extends from 31N69W 27N75W. Some shower activity is associated with the frontal boundary. Farther E, another cold front enters the forecast area near 31N26W, then continues SW to near 26N41W where it begins to dissipate. Moderate NE winds are in the wake of the front with seas of 8-12 ft in NW swell. Patches of low level clouds, with possible showers, are along the front. A 1029 mb high pressure located over the central Atlantic near 36N43W dominates the remainder of the forecast waters. The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong trades E of the Lesser Antilles to about 48W. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring within this area of winds. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered north of the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola into early next week. As the ridge retreats eastward, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat, and reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon. $$ GR