306 AXNT20 KNHC 162239 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across western Africa and terminates along the coast of Gambia near 13.5N16.5W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 00N24W to 02S38W. A surface trough is noted west of the ITCZ from 05N37W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05S to 05N and W of 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present S of 04.5N to Brazil between 36W-44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front is moving slowly eastward across the eastern Gulf, and extends from the Florida Bid Bend near 30N84W to near 24N88W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front from the Florida Panhandle coast near 30N86W to 26N91W. Another surface trough is located in the central Bay of Campeche extending NE to near 23N90W. No significant convection is associated with these features. Broken low and middle level clouds prevail E of the front to the W coast of Florida, where widely scattered weak showers are offshore between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral. A lone cluster of moderate convection is seen just N of the Yucatan Channel near 22.5N88.5W. The rest of the Gulf to the NW is dominated by a dry stable airmass. Moderate westerly winds prevail across the N central Gulf behind or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will progress southeastward and reach from south Florida to near the N Yucatan Peninsula late this evening where it will stall and dissipate overnight. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall from south Florida to the central Gulf Sun morning where it will dissipate. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind this front ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends to the Straits of Florida, and supports mostly easterly tradewinds across the basin S of 18N. Mostly fair weather prevails with a few patches of low to middle level clouds and isolated showers across central portions N of 13N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over northern South America is resulting in fresh to locally strong trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas of 7-10 ft prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean due to persistent easterly Atlantic tradewind swell. The highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. The rest of the NW basin is under moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N72W to 28N79W and scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm to the north of trough axis. The pressure gradient between this trough and a strong high pressure over the eastern United States result in fresh to strong SE winds to the north of the trough. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge located near the Azores, promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions from the coast of Africa to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics allow for fresh to locally strong easterly winds between Africa and the Bahamas, mainly S of 23N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict strong trades at the entrance of the Windward Passage. The easterly fetch result in seas greater than 8 ft covering most of the eastern and central Atlantic, and extending to the waters off the eastern Greater Antilles. The highest seas are found S of 25N and E of 53W. Strong N-NE winds are occurring in the far NE tropical Atlantic, mainly off Morocco, and seas in the area are 10-14 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through the week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E of 70W through this evening before gradually subsiding. The ridge will retreat eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The front will extend from near Bermuda to south Florida late Sun night. $$ Stripling