000 AXNT20 KNHC 152317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07.5N14W to 03.5N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 03.5N18W to 0.5N27W to 01N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, associated with the monsoon trough, is from 00N to 06N east of 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 48W, and from 00N to 03N between 48W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1800 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from 1015 mb low pressure along the Mississippi-Alabama border near 31N8.5W, across the Mississippi River Delta to 26N94.5W to the coast of Mexico near 23.5N98W. A quick moving outflow boundary ahead of the front is analyzed from the western Florida Panhandle along 86.5W to 27.5N88W to 26N93.5W. Scattered moderate convection leads these features in the NE Gulf north of 23N between 83W and 91W. Winds in recent hours have been near-gale force in the strongest areas of convection, with higher gusts possible. Fresh NW to W winds are occurring behind the cold front in the northwest and north central Gulf, with seas of 3-6 ft. In the northeast Gulf, ahead of the outflow boundary and cold front, fresh to strong SE winds are occurring with 3-8 ft seas. The active convection moving across this area will be capable of producing gale force winds and stronger an continuing across inland locations. In the southeast Gulf, gentle to moderate SE winds are noted with 3-5 ft seas. In the northeast fresh to locally strong southerly winds prevail with seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche later this evening, then drift SE and dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and very active weather will continue across the NE Gulf ahead of this front thru tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low is sustaining fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. In this area, seas are 7-10 ft according to the latest satellite altimeter data. In the E Caribbean, fresh trades are north of 14N with mainly moderate trades south of 14N. Seas are also 6-9 ft in the E Caribbean. Finally, in the W Caribbean, a more relaxed pressure gradient supports moderate trades with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High moving eastward over the NW Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central Caribbean through this weekend. Strong to near gale trades will prevail N of Colombia today, then fresh to strong winds will pulse each night through the forecast period. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras Thu evening through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the area at 31N61W, continuing to 27N66W, then terminating as a shearline over the Bahamas near 26N77W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of the boundary between 73W and the N Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the boundary to 30N between 65W and 73W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by fresh to strong trades along the southern flank of 1029 mb high pressure near 33N40W. This pattern is supporting widespread 8-11 ft seas in E swell, with peak seas to 12 ft between 16N-20N and E of 43W as measured by a recent satellite altimeter pass. In the E Atlantic, north of Cabo Verde and east of 35W, strong N to NE winds are noted with seas of 11-16 ft in N swell. A significant outbreak of Saharan air and associated African dust has been transported across a very large area of the eastern Atlantic by a deep layered upper level low pressure center currently over NW Africa. Dust covers the area E of 25W to the coast of W Africa and northward to coastal areas of Portugal and NW Spain. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will lift northward today and eventually dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will persist near and up to 180 nm N of this front through this evening, then slowly subside during mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding. Looking ahead, a deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast is going to cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Thu afternoon. $$ Stripling