000 AXNT20 KNHC 151728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to the equator at 28W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the monsoon trough, is from 01N to 08N east of 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ between 37W and 50W. The latest scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force winds in the strongest convection. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from near Morgan City, LA at 29N91W to 27N95W to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. A quick moving outflow boundary ahead of the front is analyzed from the Florida-Louisiana border at 30N88W to 27N91W to 26N93W to 27N94W. Scattered moderate convection leads these features in the NE Gulf north of 26.5N between 84W and 88W. An additional area of scattered moderate convection is noted in the central Gulf from 23N to 26N between 89W and 91W. Winds are near-gale force in the strongest areas of convection, with higher gusts possible. According to recent surface reports, fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the cold front in the northwest Gulf, with seas of 3-6 ft. In the northeast Gulf, ahead of the outflow boundary and cold front, fresh to strong SE winds are occurring with 3-6 ft seas. In the southeast Gulf, gentle to moderate SE winds are noted with 3-5 ft seas. In the south-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche, winds are mainly gentle and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche late this evening, then dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and inclement weather will continue across the NE Gulf ahead of this front thru tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low is sustaining fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. In this area, seas are 6-9 ft according to the latest satellite altimeter data. In the E Caribbean, fresh trades are north of 14N with mainly moderate trades south of 14N. Seas are also 6-9 ft in the E Caribbean. Finally, in the W Caribbean, a more relaxed pressure gradient supports moderate trades with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High moving eastward over the NW Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central Caribbean through this weekend. Strong to near gale trades will prevail N of Colombia today, then fresh to strong winds will pulse each night through the forecast period. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras Thu evening through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the area at 31N60W, continuing to 27N66W, then terminating over the Bahamas near 26N78W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of the boundary between 73W and the N Bahamas, according to the latest scatterometer data. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by fresh to strong trades along the southern flank of 1032 mb high pressure near 33N42W. This pattern is supporting widespread 8-11 ft seas in E swell, which was captured well on satellite altimeter passes from earlier this morning. In the E Atlantic, north of Cabo Verde and east of 28W, strong N winds are noted with seas of 11-16 ft in N swell. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will lift northward today and eventually dissipate this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will persist near and up to 180 nm N of this front through this evening, then slowly subside during mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding. Looking ahead, a deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast is going to cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Thu afternoon. $$ Mahoney