000 AXNT20 KNHC 151227 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W to 06N18W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough, S of 06N between 10W and 16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W through 02N30W to E of Belem, Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the ITCZ from 01S to 03N between 20W and 40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01S to 03N between 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans across the far NW Gulf through the Texas coast just S of Corpus Christi. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are evident over the N central Gulf, including New Orleans. Scattered showers are seen farther E over the NE Gulf and N Florida. Westerly fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present over the NW Gulf, while moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found across the NE Gulf. A surface ridge extends from S Florida across the S central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh southerly return flow along with 4 to 6 ft seas over the S Gulf. In the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to the cold front can be seen along and S of the Texas and Louisiana coast this morning. This front will progress southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Band area to the eastern Bay of Campeche late this evening, then dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and inclement weather will occur across the NE Gulf ahead of this front from this afternoon thru tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb Bermuda High near 37N57W and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is sustaining a NE to E trade- wind flow across the basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers across the NE Caribbean Basin, including the Leeward Islands. Strong to near- gale trades along with 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over the central and E Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen over the W Caribbean. In the forecast, the Bermuda High moving eastward over the NW Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large trade- wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central Caribbean through early this weekend. Trades N of Colombia will reach strong to near-gale thru Fri, especially during nighttime. Expect fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off Honduras Thu evening through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W west- southwestward across the NW Bahamas to the Strait of Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 250 nm N of the front, including S Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NNE to ENE trades along with seas at 8 to 12 ft are present across the central and E Atlantic from the Equator to 24N between 26W and 50W, and farther SW from the Equator to 23N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Over the NE Atlantic, strong to near-gale N winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft are evident near the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will continue to lift northward today and eventually dissipate late this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will persist near and up to 180 nm N of this front through this evening, then slowly subside during mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding. Looking ahead, a deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast is going to cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Thu afternoon. $$ Chan