167 AXNT20 KNHC 141025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal from 13N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between 09W and 12W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches from 1032 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic near 33N70W to the north coast of Texas. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas including a component of northerly swell, reaching to 8 ft over the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 25N. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the ridge extending from high pressure off the Carolinas to the coast of Texas will continue to dominate the Gulf through early Tue evening. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through today. Fresh E to SE return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front, which will enter the far NW Gulf late tonight into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from east-central Cuba across Grand Cayman Island to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted north of the shear line, with 5 to 8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the lee of Cuba. High pressure north of the area off the Carolinas is also supporting strong winds off Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh NE winds are impacting the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the shear line. Recent observations also show fresh to strong NE to E winds across the far northeast Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the shear line over the Gulf of Honduras, but no significant convection is evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front/shearline extending from east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is dissipating. High pressure building eastward N of the area will cause increasing trade winds and building seas for the east and central Caribbean through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wed evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by late Thu. Large trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the western North Atlantic, crossing 31N at 57W and extending to eastern Cuba. 1032 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the front between the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Fresh to occasionall strong NE winds are evident within 120 nm west of the front, to include across the central Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the front over open waters to about 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 75W to the coast of Florida. Farther west, a ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands, it reaches southwest to 29N60W. The ridge is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds south of 25N with 8 to 10 ft seas in E swell. This encompasses the entire tropical north Atlantic, from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong N winds and 8t o 10 ft seas are following a cold front moving into the waters from Morocco to the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start to lift north today and dissipate through tonight. Rough seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. $$ Christensen