000 AXNT20 KNHC 131640 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Dry continental air dominates the Gulf of Mexico under a strong ridge positioned over the Mississippi Valley. This environment fosters a shield of stratocumulus clouds that fills most of the basin. Latest scatterometer wind data and surface observations indicate that fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail E of 90W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Cuba. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds are present in the rest of the gulf. Seas greater than 8 ft are found S of 28N in the eastern gulf and S of 25N in the central and western gulf. An altimeter pass from this morning captured seas up to 10 ft in the Florida Straits. The highest seas, up to 13 ft, are occurring at the entrance of the Yucatan Channel and central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure over the SE of the United States dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this system and a cold front over the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across much of the eastern and SW Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through late today as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Fresh E to SE winds return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize and only a few shallow showers are noted near the boundary. Recent scatterometer wind data and surface observations depict fresh to locally strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas are 7-13 ft W of the front, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Farther east, a weak surface trough is found along 71W from 14N- 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead and behind the trough. Fresh to locally strong trades are prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas are 4-8 ft in these areas. For the forecast, a cold front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will stall tonight then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking ahead, a second cold front will stall and dissipate across the Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by late Thu. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and continues southwestward across the eastern Bahamas and into central Cuba. Cloudiness and light showers are noted within 120 nm W of the frontal boundary. Winds behind the cold front have dropped below gale force. Recent satellite-derived wind data show fresh to locally strong N-NE winds, with the strongest winds occurring in the central Bahamas and offshore central Cuba. Seas behind the front remain greater than 8 ft, with wave heights of 12-14 ft occurring N of 29N and between 67W and 76W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge over the central Atlantic that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 7-10 ft in this region. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are on either side of the front. Winds will diminish through this afternoon as the front continues to move to the southeast. The front will stall across the waters E of the Bahamas by this evening, then will lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. $$ DELGADO