000 AXNT20 KNHC 131031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida. NW winds to gale force persist within 90 nm west of the front north of 28N through the remainder of the overnight hours, but will diminish below gale force through the early morning. Seas are reaching 12 to 16 ft in this region. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moved southeast of the Gulf late yesterday evening. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident over most of the eastern and south-central Gulf with 8 to 12 ft seas. Strong to near-gale force NW to N winds are noted over the far southwest Gulf. Gentle breezes and subsiding seas are occurring over the far northwest Gulf, where high pressure is building. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through late today as the high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf. The high pressure will shift east of the area through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident over the far northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, following a cold front extending from western Cuba to near northern Belize. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean with fresh to strong winds off Colombia with seas to 8 ft. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. A few thunderstorms are active near San Andres Island, due to upper divergence near an upper trough. No other significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the cold front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking ahead, a second front will stall and dissipate across the Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by late Thu. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida. In addition to the gale force winds mentioned in the Special Features section above, buoy data show strong to near-gale force winds persist west of the front. Seas to 18 ft are being reported at buoy 41002 near 32N75W. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted within 210 nm east of the front with rough seas. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted over the central Bahamas ahead of the front. Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure is centered near 32N42W, with a ridge axis extending to the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted along the ridge axis with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to occasionally strong E trade winds are noted elsewhere south of the ridge and south of 25N with 6 to 9 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, strong to gale-force winds between northeast Florida and Bermuda following a cold front reaching from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida. Winds will diminish through the morning as the front continues to move to the southeast. The front will stall from 26N65W to central Florida tonight, then will lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough seas are expected to linger through early next week northeast of the Bahamas in NW swell, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell northeast of the Leeward Islands will mix with the NW swell by mid week and persist into late Thu. $$ Christensen