000 AXNT20 KNHC 121047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong Gulf of Mexico cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to 25N92W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. A very tight gradient between strong high pressure building over the western Gulf behind the front and lower pressure associated with the front is resulting in strong gale-force winds northwest to north winds behind the front. An overnight ASCAT pass nicely depicted the gale-force winds. In addition, latest buoy observations are showing strong gale-force wind gusts in the NW and north-central Gulf areas behind the front. The gale-force winds will be in the offshore waters of Mexico, and along the north central Gulf coast, as the front moves eastward quickly. The wave heights will build to a range of 10-15 ft in the northern Gulf, and to a range of 12-18 ft in SW Gulf today. The wind speeds will diminish on Sun, with wave heights subsiding by early Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. Atlantic Gale Wind Warning: A strong cold front will quickly enter the western part of the area this morning. Gale-force southwest winds will develop over the waters north of 30N and west of 77W this morning, while southwest winds of 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale-force develop elsewhere north of 27N and west of 70W. As the front passes, winds will shift to the west to northwest, while maintaining gale-force speeds through tonight. The wave heights will build to the range of 10-14 ft north of 29N and west of about 70W. The winds will begin to diminish early on Sun, with wave heights subsiding early on Mon. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N10W to the Equator near 21W and to 02S26W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm northwest of the trough between 17W-26W, and near the coast of Brazil from 01S to 03N between 44W-48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from the Equator near 29W to 01S33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information about the ongoing gale-force winds associated to a strong cold front. This strong cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to 25N92W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. An enhanced areas of numerous showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front north of 26N. This activity is moving inland northern Florida. This activity may pose a hazardous risk to mariners as some it may be of sever intensity, with strong winds and frequent lightning. East of the front, wave heights are building to the range of 8-12 ft north of 26N. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds along with wave heights of 3-6 ft are elsewhere over the eastern half of the Gulf. As for the forecast, A gale warning is in effect for all the Gulf waters except the SE part. The aforementioned cold front will sweep across the rest of the Gulf by earl this evening. Gale- force winds and very rough seas will follow the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will then shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient associated with central Atlantic high pressure is supporting generally moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Wave heights are in the range of 5-7 ft east of 78W, and 3-5 ft west of 78W. Patches of low-level moisture embedded within the trade wind flow are noted east of 74W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with these moisture patches. As for the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will support the moderate to fresh trades through Sun night. The trades then increase to fresh to strong speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean late Sun night through Wed night. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean by early this evening, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and building wave heights to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles well into next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more information about the gale-force winds that are soon expected in the western part of the Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the far northwest part of the area ahead a strong cold front that is present over northwestern Georgia, and stretches southwestward to the central and western Gulf of Mexico. A broad surface anticyclonic wind flow pattern covers just about the entire area. It is anchored by a 1028 mb high center located near 30N46W. Fresh to strong northeast winds cover the waters that are from 03N to 28N from the Bahamas eastward. Wave heights are in the 10-12 ft range from 23N to 31N and between 20W and 40W. Wave heights of 7-10 ft are elsewhere east of 62W to 44W and south of 21N. Lower wave heights of 4-7 ft are elsewhere, except for higher heights of 6-8 ft over the waters northeast of northern Florida. As for the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are over the NE Florida waters ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to rapidly enter the SW N Atlantic this morning. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the front Sat and Sat night. Rough seas are expected to linger through early next week, then slowly subside through Wed night. Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles into early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by another set of swell. $$ Aguirre